2013 Public Bid Results

[Scooter]

Here we go again. None of the summer 2013 contracts have been awarded yet, but I thought I'd get this thread set up since I've been doing some other maintenance. The majority of publicly listed contracts will start being tendered in the last week of September through the first week of November. Bids usually close three or four weeks after a contract is listed, so by the end of November, almost all public bid results have been finalized.

Going into the 2013 planting season, evidence seems to indicate that planting volumes will be increasing from 2012 levels, which were already up significantly from 2011. Although there are no accurate statistics available, the number that I heard was an estimate of a 15% increase in volumes. That doesn't sound like much, but it's pretty big.

We saw bid prices going up last year compared to 2011 projects, especially once contractors realized that there was so much work out there and that they could be more picky about their bids. That SHOULD once again be the case this season. Contractors AND planters should both be able to get better prices for the work in 2013. Of course, that depends on one small and sometimes unpredictable group: the contractors. And as has been pointed out before, the contractors are often their own worst enemies.

Prior to 2008, contracts almost always went for at least thirty cents per tree (to the contractor), except occasionally for the very fastest and easiest of ground. I believe that a lot of the contracts this year SHOULD get back to those levels. At the very worst, contracts that went for ridiculously low prices like 20-22 cents last year should be up in the 27-29 cent range.

If the contractors have any common sense, they will show some restraint this year and bid at least 15-30% higher than last season, depending on the area. Remember that if all of the public bid contracts are awarded at higher prices, the contractors can take these sheets to licenses and use them as evidence that market prices have risen, in an effort to increase prices on direct bid work too. Over the past five years, almost all regular expenses have risen significantly ... labour costs (through minimum wage regulations), fuel, and food costs have all increased. Because of this, even a return to 2007 pricing levels will mean that the work is still not as profitable for planting companies as it was then.

We will be posting all public bid results that we can find in this thread, so planters can evaluate which companies might have the best work. This thread is currently visible to all message board viewers, not just to registered users, to increase visibility. If you have access to bid results but don't want to post them yourself (because you want to stay discrete), email them to jonathan.scooter.clark@gmail.com and I'll post them anonymously.

Hopefully contractors realize that the best business strategy for each of them will be to bid higher and do the same amount of work as 2012, but at better prices. Contractors with a higher percentage of experienced workers will have better success than companies which have to try to hire large numbers of inexperienced workers. Chasing volumes and trying to expand is probably a much less appealing strategy. Planters will be watching the numbers.

Good luck to everyone, and remember that better prices ARE possible this year.

[Evergreen]

Here's a quote from an email received from John Betts of the Contractor's Association in August. The meeting referred to is the annual pre bidding season contractor's meeting where everyone tries to persuade each other to bid higher...

"In the meantime, later this month, the WSCA will produce a bulletin prior to the meeting and the 2013 bidding season outlining the anticipated increase in planting for next year along with other forecasts around the Land Based Investment Strategy and workforce trends. One of the key purposes of this meeting is to provide information to the sector that planting numbers for next year will increase by another 10 percent province-wide next year. It will be one of our biggest years in the last ten at around 240-million. With those numbers in mind we hope to see bids that reflect that the industry has a seller's market advantage if contractors are patient and bid what their work and their workers are worth. Given the growing constraints on available experienced workers their may be a surplus of trees in the province."

[RPF]

With an increase in volume expected over the next year or two, I'm left wondering if there will be enough compentent workers to plant the expected increase within the same time frames?

Based on my own situation, I'm looking at planting roughly 25-30% more seedlings next year compared to this, but I'm not yet seeing a corresponding increase in the number of workers to help put those trees in the ground. There is a limited number of (good) tree planters out there, and unless the business starts to recruit and train new workers soon, I fear a labour shortage in the planting profession is near.

Will increased prices be enough to attract people back into the tree planting profession?
These next couple of years will be interesting ones to watch and see.

[Scooter]

I feel that if we saw tree price increases to planters of another 15% this year, there would definitely be a significant decrease in attrition going into 2014. Even last year's increases will mean a slightly higher return rate than normal, I think, but I feel that a second year in a row would make the industry seem attractive again.

Of course, this is just a gut feeling.

With better prices, and more retention of vets, the average capacity based on a specific number of planters will increase. For instance, in a camp with 50 planters, if the camp goes from 40 vets and 10 rookies to 45 vets and 5 rookies, and the average vet puts in 50,000 more trees in a season than the average rookie, then the better retention will mean that the same number of people can plant an extra quarter million trees. I guess that goes without saying, but the point is that industry capacity can expand a bit without necessarily hiring more people overall. All we have to do is get prices up a bit more, so more people decide that the job is worth coming back to. The reason I have a gut feeling that one more good year would be a tipping point is that another 15% increase in prices should get levels back to roughly where they were five years ago. I think that there is a mindset (which is accurate) created by the current planters with five years of experience, who tell younger planters that prices aren't as good as they used to be. If that changed and that group of opinion leaders started talking around the campfire about the fact that "prices are about as good as they ever were," that would really make a lot of people's outlook more positive. Maybe enough to make 5-10% more fence-sitters decide to come back the following year instead of look for work elsewhere.

Of course, maybe I'm just over-thinking this.

[Scooter]

This was just sent out by the WSCA:


WSCA Rumour Mill Roundupdate for Fall 2012

Planting 2013 forecasted as one of the largest since mid 90s.

Using the latest sowing request (SPAR) data for planting in 2013, the WSCA is forecasting one of the largest seasons in years. Next year could see nearly 260 million seedlings planted - up from 237 million this year according to SPAR. The 2013 estimate is based on the number of seedlings already sown, combined with the historical trends for summer planting stock orders. Those 2013 summer planting requests are just now coming in, but over the last few years the Interior summer plant sowing has been around 40 million seedlings annually. Sowing requests for summer planting have also been increasing over the last few years along with the provincial total. If that trend is consistent, we could see an annual total approaching 260 million, the third largest since 1997. The other big years were 2006 and 2007; just before the crash hit the sector with planting ebbing as low as 165 million by 2010.

With the spring planting numbers confirmed, the trends by region show the Northern Interior to be the prime beneficiary, increasing from 71 million to 82 million next spring. The Coast region is seeing a three million increase to 20 million seedlings for the spring. The South Interior is the only depressed trend, dropping slightly from 102 million seedlings to 98 million next spring. Summer planting this year in those regions came in for the Coast at 8 million including this fall, the North Interior at 25 million, and the South Interior at around 12 million.

Will there be enough planters?

The pair of big years in the last decade produced the only upward blip in rates paid to workers. Other than the short-lived 2007 five percent up-tick, piece rates continued their decline into 2011. This extends a discouraging downward trend of about 33 percent along with inflation since 2000. Figures for rates for 2012 are not available, but last year's 2011 exit poll asked workers to report their earnings per day. Besides the fact that the majority of the workers said they were underemployed needing up to another month of work, the figures reported showed half the industry's planters are earning less than $22 per hour for at least a ten hour work day. This places them at the very bottom for earnings in the resource sector. If there were planters working as United Steel workers, they would earn around $23 for an eight hour day and much lower production expectations. Mining wages start around $28.00 hour and the oil & gas sector begins around $35.00 per hour.

The WSCA is just now developing a human resource strategy for the silviculture sector thanks to government support through the Labour Market Partnership Program and the Ministry of Jobs, Tourism and Innovation, but it will be another year before that process can begin to reliably report out on the trends affecting our workforce. It will take just as long to come up with a recruitment and retention strategy for the sector, as well as guidelines and best practices for individual firms. Nevertheless, the anecdotal evidence suggests that getting the job done in 2012 pretty much tapped out the provincial planting capacity. There were no extra planters and in some cases there weren't enough. What may have saved the sector from wider default was the weather and the extension that added a couple of weeks to the spring plant into late June and early July. If we have reached peak capacity now, much depends on what the jet stream serves up next year, an El Niño year. Much also depends on whether workers think they are being treated well and paid what its worth to do actual hard work for a living. With the uncertainty around those two factors, there is a risk of a capacity crunch in 2013.

Do the survey.

The volunteer working group in charge of developing a human resource strategy for the silviculture sector has sent out its annual survey for workers and employers. Please circulate the survey to your employees and urge them to answer the confidential poll. We also want to gauge the mood of the employers in the sector too and have added a special section. You can help by getting yourself and your workers to go to https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/D2T7M5J.

The results of the survey will be made available after this year.

Please help us spread the word by circulating this email to as many people as possible, including other contractors, coworkers, employees, suppliers, any other interested parties, etc.

Thanks,
JOHN BETTS
**************************************************************************
Western Silvicultural Contractors' Association
#720 - 999 West Broadway
Vancouver, BC V5Z 1K5
Tel: (604) 736-8660 Fax: (604) 738-4080
Email: admin@wsca.ca
Website: www.wsca.ca

[Evergreen]

For some perspective as to what happened last year regarding bids for 2012 spring contracts, I have results for 36 government contracts. These numbers include the coast. Here's what the numbers show;

44,186,084 trees bid on
$14,133,687 in lowest bids
31.2 cents average lowest bid
38.2 cents average bid all contractors
$37,698.92 (3.1 cents) average per contract left to 2nd bidder

[clay]

does that last number pertain only to bids that were dropped to the second bidder?
or is it the average difference between "first" and second bidders on all bids?

[Evergreen]

For some perspective as to what happened last year regarding bids for 2012 spring contracts, I have results for 36 government contracts. These numbers include the coast. Here's what the numbers show;

44,186,084 trees bid on
$14,133,687 in lowest bids
31.2 cents average lowest bid
38.2 cents average bid all contractors
$37,698.92 (3.1 cents) average per contract left to 2nd bidder

These numbers pertain to the bids as they were received, not how they ended up being awarded. I don't have accurate info on who ended up doing each job. The overwhelming majority of jobs go to the low bidder. A few do percolate up the line like BCTS Clearwater this spring that ended up going to the 4th or 5th lowest bidder. The gov. in it's wisdom doesn't publish who the final awardee is. Most government jobs require bid deposits of upwards of $5000 so not many get dropped.

[Scooter]

I don't have access to any results yet, but I did hear a rumour that the winning bidder on the BCTS Vanderhoof job got it for around 26 cents per tree. And I believe that the majority of the bidders were over 30 cents. If this is correct, this is a huge improvement from last year, when the same contract went for 20 cents.

[Evergreen]

I don't have access to any results yet, but I did hear a rumour that the winning bidder on the BCTS Vanderhoof job got it for around 26 cents per tree. And I believe that the majority of the bidders were over 30 cents. If this is correct, this is a huge improvement from last year, when the same contract went for 20 cents.

I wouldn't believe the rumors if I were you. Here's what I know about the BCTS Vanderhoof job that opened September 12th.

PL14TJE003
2,000,164 trees bid by the hectare
Low Bid and awarded to Spectrum
$422,316.20 or 21.1 cents - 5% higher than last year
$476,798.38 or 23.8 cents Folklore in 2nd

This contract is mostly raw planting with around 250,000 mounds. It requires the contractor to ship all the trees from Kelowna and store them in a reefer unit, provide an on-site RPF or RFT, & do DTA & falling. I'd guess that the planters will be lucky to get 11 cents.

[Screefhead]

It must be very frustrating for the good contractors bidding on contract knowing they are competing with lowballing scum like NGR and Spectrum.

[Scooter]

I don't have official results here, but I believe that NGR and Evergreen were the successful bidders on the two FFT contracts down in Williams Lake.

[Scooter]

Here are the PDF's for the FFT Williams Lake results (attached).

Contract Number 001:

Evergreen $532,797 (38.1 cents per tree)
Apex $556,918 (39.8 cents per tree)
Next Generation $564,698 (40.3 cents per tree)
Dewan $568,538 (40.6 cents per tree)
Dynamic $583,274 (41.7 cents per tree)
Corsair $622,386 (44.5 cents per tree)
Folklore $634,109 (45.3 cents per tree)
Shakti $651,420 (46.5 cents per tree)
Coast Range $699,952 (50.0 cents per tree)

This one was for about 1.4 million trees, half trenches and half fill plants in plantations that burned in a forest fire. I think it was around 120 km southwest of Williams Lake.



Contract 002:

Next Generation $618,036 (34.3 cents per tree)
Evergreen $624,517 (34.7 cents per tree)
Corsair $694,618 (38.6 cents per tree)
Dynamic $708,279 (39.3 cents per tree)
Coast Range $828,806 (46.0 cents per tree)
AKD $835,387 (46.4 cents per tree)
Folklore $883,253 (49.1 cents per tree)
Apex $1,050,989 (58.4 cents per tree)

This one was for about 1.8m trees, also split roughly half between trenches and fills in fires. The blocks on this one were quite a bit rockier than on the 001 contract. I'm not convinced that all people bidding looked at the ground carefully enough to know this. This contract has approximately fifty different request keys on it, so it will be tricky. It's also further away from Williams Lake, around 180km.


My guess is that Evergreen won't do too badly on the 001 contract. NGR will have a tougher time on the more difficult 002 contract, and at a lower price. Maybe people bid more aggressively on 002 because it had more trees, and either didn't notice or ignored the fact that it's a bit rockier.

[Scooter]

Results for BCTS Okanagan North (Vernon, PL14TKJ001)

Raven, $176,298 (35.2 cents per tree)
Seneca, $188,833 (37.7 cents per tree)
Timberline, $189,424 (37.8 cents per tree)
Quastuco, $189,465 (37.8 cents per tree)
Coast Range, $192,175 (38.3 cents per tree)
All-Stars, $194,701 (38.8 cents per tree)
Rhino, $202,103 (40.3 cents per tree)
Zanzibar, $213,499 (42.6 cents per tree)
Evergreen, $214,983 (42.9 cents per tree)
Dewan, $252,716 (50.4 cents per tree)

Total Trees: 501,220

[Screefhead]

Are the blocks on the Williams Lake - Evergreen contract located down the Enterprise road?

[Scooter]

100 Mile House, PL14TEG001:

Coast Range, $793,101 (29.5 cents per tree)
Corsair, $874,544 (32.5 cents per tree)
Seneca, $958,721 (35.6 cents per tree)
Zanzibar, $981,564 (36.5 cents per tree)
Celtic, $1,007,661 (37.4 cents per tree)
Evergreen, $1,059,272 (39.4 cents per tree)
Folklore, $1,138,002 (42.3 cents per tree)
Apex, $1,210,295 (45.0 cents per tree)

This contract was bid for 2,691,791 trees, which is the number that I used in the above breakdowns. However, only about 1.9m trees will be available, so the amount of work and value of the job will only be about 70% of what was bid on. In other words, Coast Range will only plant 1.9m trees and bill for about $560,000.

[Scooter]

Screefhead, re. FFT Williams Lake 001, the contract is a pretty tight grouping, down the Chilanko-Newton past Alexis Creek, and then down the 7000 road. I think I underestimated the distances for both contracts by about forty or fifty kilometers west of Williams Lake.

[Mike]

Screefhead, re. FFT Williams Lake 001, the contract is a pretty tight grouping, down the Chilanko-Newton past Alexis Creek, and then down the 7000 road. I think I underestimated the distances for both contracts by about forty or fifty kilometers west of Williams Lake.

Isn't that quite near the trenches of doom? And FFTWilliams Lake001 was the less rocky of the two choices?

[Scooter]

Yes, the blocks are extremely close.

The 001 contract looked pretty similar to the stuff that Dynamic did last year, ie. this stuff:

http://www.replant.ca/photos/2011/www-r ... ll_091.jpg

The 002 contract seemed to be rockier than both the 001 contract and the blocks I saw in that area last year. I visited every road on every block of both contracts while I was looking around at the start of this month. However, I don't have any photos with me right now that I could post of this year's FFT jobs.

I don't think the trenches will be the problem. At least in the trenches, you can see the rocks. It's the fill plants where the rocks are less visible from the surface that will be tricky.

However, a potential game-breaker will be looking at where the trees need to be planted on the trenched blocks. It appears that a lot of the trees from this past spring were planted on the tops of trenches (this is based on what I saw this month when I was down there, not an exhaustive survey by any means). A lot of those trees have died. I can't remember if the contracts last year stipulated that trees were supposed to be planted low in the trenches, but they definitely emphasize that guideline this year. If they WERE supposed to be planted in the bottoms this past year, a lack of enforcement seems to have wasted a bit of taxpayer money. My guess is that the enforcement will be more strict this year. If that's the case, then the bottoms of the trenches will be just as difficult to plant as the fill plants, because the planters won't easily be able to see where the sub-surface rocks are located. I envision that management for the prevention of tendonitis will be a key part of the project.

But beyond those negative assumptions, and ignoring the rocks, I have to admit that Williams Lake has the most beautiful looking trenches in Western Canada. Whoever drives their trenching machines deserves to go into the Tree Planter Hall of Fame.

Mike, maybe you can elaborate on the "Trenches of Doom?" Your feedback would be good preparatory info for planters getting ready for the 2013 jobs down there.

[Screefhead]

A guy nicknamed KIwi does most of the trenching in that area. He used to be a planter/ camp trouble shooter at Blue Collar a few years back.

[Mike]

They said hit bottom. That proved to be impossible. Then they said you could hit higher up. At which point weather effects probably killed a good chunk of trees.

One of our supervisors walked through last years blocks, where some of the trees were planted right at the bottom. Those ones were dead, too.

Trenching isn't a solution; an obstacle plant is. Given the physical risk of injury (we had 6-8 planters miss a day, or more during that shift, and several haunted by pain all season) it would take an extremely high price to get me to actually try on that land.

[shakattack]

Just came out this week.
Okanagan South Contract PL14TKN002
771,740 trees. Steep ground and some fills. Blocks are real spread out around Okanagan, but not altogether bad access to the blocks. All motel show I should think.

Raven Venture 255,730 0.33
Quastuco 274,708 0.36
Coast Range 292,004 0.38
Timberline 293,131 0.38
All-Stars 297,175 0.39
Shakti 305,279 0.40
Rhino 316,035 0.41
Dewan 318,940 0.41
Evergreen 326,381 0.42
Seneca 342,892 0.44

[Scooter]

I was just looking at all of the bids here so far, and the thing that struck me the most is that several of the bigger multi-camp BC companies are the ones that have most clearly been bidding much higher than two years ago, ie. Seneca, Apex, Folklore, Coast Range, etc.

These companies seem to have realized that there are more trees out for bid this year than the market can easily handle. There is more than enough work to go around, so there is no need to bid aggressively.

There will be dozens more contracts bid over the next three to four weeks.

[Tnalp]

It's easier to bid lower than the competition when the work is in your 'back-yard". Raven seems to have been eager to pick up local work.

[Scooter]

BCTS Hazelton. The mis-judged bids are starting to flow in.


Hybrid 17 - $110,573 ($0.299)
BD Silviculture - $123,806 ($0.335)
Timberline - $133,380 ($0.360)
Anspayaxw Developments - $144,890 ($0.392)
BBK Contracting - $159,100 ($0.430)
Apex - $175,100 ($0.473)
Dynamic - $223,080 ($0.603)
Seneca - $232,950 ($0.630)

370,000 trees

[Scooter]

BCTS Prince George, Spring trees: PL14TGC001

2,326,117 trees

Nata - $571,077 (24.5 cents per tree)
Coast Range - $717,031 (30.8 cents per tree)
Seneca - $766,143 (33.0 cents per tree)
Folklore - $794,655 (34.2 cents per tree)
Spectrum - $808,558 (34.8 cents per tree)
Celtic - $818,407 (35.2 cents per tree)
Apex - $829,814 (35.7 cents per tree)

That's got to hurt. Why are people even bidding under thirty cents? Nothing, in any corner of the province, should be that cheap at this point in time.

[Nate]

BCTS Prince George, Spring trees: PL14TGC001

2,326,117 trees

Nata - $571,077 (24.5 cents per tree)
Coast Range - $717,031 (30.8 cents per tree)
Seneca - $766,143 (33.0 cents per tree)
Folklore - $794,655 (34.2 cents per tree)
Spectrum - $808,558 (34.8 cents per tree)
Celtic - $818,407 (35.2 cents per tree)
Apex - $829,814 (35.7 cents per tree)

That's got to hurt. Why are people even bidding under thirty cents? Nothing, in any corner of the province, should be that cheap at this point in time.

Ouch.

[retrovertigo]

Nata is like a free summer camp for local PG kids, literally getting dropped off by their parents to work for .10c per tree.

[Scooter]

BCTS Williams Lake North and West
PL14TLE001

I can’t remember the number of trees


Dynamic, $851,722
Fieldstone, $872,527
Seneca, $898,102
Corsair, $925,565
Folklore, $996,725
Celtic, $1,055,800
AKD, $1,160,005
Apex, $1,282,829

[Evergreen]

Here's one that seemed to be missed;

BCTS Vanderhoof PL14TJE004 opened Sept. 19
3,000,000 trees

35.3 Next Gen
37.7 Folklore
46.4 Spectrum
47.6 Apex
55.8 Celtic

[Evergreen]

And this one;

BCTS MacKenzie PL14TGE004 Opened Oct. 19
2,640,760 trees

22.5 Apex
23.6 Dynamic
23.6 Celtic
24.4 Spectrum
26.2 Coast Range
32.2 Folklore

[Evergreen]

BCTS Williams Lake North and West
PL14TLE001

# of trees = 2,223,177


38.3 Dynamic, $851,722
39.2 Fieldstone, $872,527
40.4 Seneca, $898,102
41.6 Corsair, $925,565
44.8 Folklore, $996,725
47.5 Celtic, $1,055,800
52.2 AKD, $1,160,005
57.7 Apex, $1,282,829

[Mike]

BCTS MacKenzie PL14TGE004 Opened Oct. 19
2,640,760 trees

22.5 Apex
23.6 Dynamic
23.6 Celtic
24.4 Spectrum
26.2 Coast Range
32.2 Folklore

Oh fuck no. I meant to write something about how it constitutes dangerous harm to your foremans lives to bid under 30 cents on this Contract. The "people" at BCTS MacKenzie for some reason have decided that by "Deactivating" roads, they don't mean "Put in a small ditch every 200 meters that we quad through no problem" they mean literally dragging walls of stumps and logs onto the road such that it's easier to quad over the block, making all of the quad access blocks inevitably terribly dangerous for your foreman, and probably constituting a time loss for the crew.

This probably went so low because it was huge and part/all of it can be done post July 1st. All you're going to do is end up pissing off your camp at the end of the season, leaving them with a shitty set of memories. Some of the blocks on that contract last year were 2-3 years overgrown and covered in forests of weeds and devilsclub.

Add into the fact that the road the block is on is extremely dangerous. It's over-trafficked, and the radio-call is so fierce that you often can't even hear what's going on nearby.

Nothing about those under 30 cent bids is okay for planters, unless this contract is 100% different from last year.

[mcD]

Makenzie is a large and highly variable area, you could get anything from drive through cream to heli schnarb. Not to say that justifies a .22c bid.

[Scooter]

They should be paying a pretty nice price on the million tree fill block that is part of that contract, from the looks of these bids.
[/sarcasm]

[Evergreen]

BCTS - Golden - 526,715 trees

$179,003 - 33.98 cents - Brinkman
$215,272 - 40.87 cents - Evergreen
$221,182 - 42.00 cents - Zanzibar
$235,258 - 44.66 cents - Seneca

Brinkman is 20% lower than the second place bidder. Thank heavens they haven't been bidding on any other government work so far this fall.

There is no bid deposit so who knows if Brinkman might drop the job? I wouldn't hold my breath.

D.

[Evergreen]

BCTS - Prince George - 2,193,649 trees

$793,992 - 36.19 cents - Celtic
$828,514 - 37.76 cents - Apex
$828,556 - 37.77 cents - Seneca
$841,063 - 38.34 cents - Blue Collar
$866,430 - 39.49 cents - Coast range
$899,815 - 41.01 cents - Folklore

This contract is almost entirely straight plants

I have now attached the correct tender opening results

[theoderix]

Now that looks like a solid bid. Nice tight grouping.

[Scooter]

BCTS Williams Lake South
PL14TLE002
Roughly 1.5m trees (low bid roughly 37 cents per tree)


Folklore, $568,031
Blue Collar, $574,332
Coast Range, $578,423
Dewan, $626,650
Fieldstone, $662,797
Seneca, $702,801
Evergreen, $778,383
Apex, $1,063,775

[Evergreen]

Details for BCTS Williams Lake South
PL14TLE002
1,538,757 trees

$568,031 - 36.9 - Folklore
$574,332 - 37.3 - Blue Collar
$578,423 - 37.6 - Coast Range,
$626,650 - 40.7 - Dewan
$662,797 - 43.1 - Fieldstone
$702,801 - 45.7 - Seneca
$778,383 - 54.1 - Evergreen
$1,063,775 - 69.1 - Apex

[retrovertigo]

Evergreen, any insights into this bid? How did Apex wind up almost twice the winning bid? You guys are the only other ones up there.

[Scooter]

I can give you my thoughts before Evergreen also contributes to the discussion.

My guess is that Evergreen's bid was high because they already have a contract in Williams Lake (FFT) that runs at the same time. I doubt that they would have the capacity to do that many trees in that short time frame. Therefore, they probably threw in a very high bid since they would have already looked at the ground. If you get a bid for a high enough price, then you can figure out what to do if you unexpectedly win it.

As for Apex, they've put in quite a few high bids. And one low one that I saw. I figure that maybe one of two scenarios is happening:

A) They realize that there are a ton of trees on the market, and figure that eventually, every other company will be full and they'll get something for a high price. If this is the scenario, it's probably a smart one. The one low bid could be explained by either a mistake, or maybe they actually wanted that particular contract for some reason. Maybe they've already got work and a camp planned in that same area?

or

B) They're bidding high on a lot of jobs to confuse other companies, with the expectation that when the "right" contract comes along for them, they pounce and nobody else sees it coming. This could also be pretty good.


Either way, as mentioned, there's a lot of work out there. Still tens of millions of trees to be tendered in the next few weeks. Bidding high is a good strategy on their part, no matter whether the reason is one of my guesses or something else. I've already heard rumours of contracts posted here that have gone up to the third or fourth place company on the list. It's going to be interesting to try to piece together a final estimate in December of who took what.

[Evergreen]

Scooter pretty much covered all of the bases. He's right on for most of it. We are not looking for another large job but had already viewed that one. If you throw in a high bid, you never know whether later in the season when your crew is finishing up and the crew down the road isn't hitting their deadline, BCTS may be looking for someone to help finish. It will have to be someone who already has a bid on that ground. Our bid on this job should have been 10-20% lower to be more effective in this scenario.

Otherwise there's little point in bothering to waste the time to send in a bid and give them a security deposit.

As for Apex hiding in the weeds and lulling other companies into bidding higher, I suppose that's possible but I doubt it's effective. Most companies aren't too concerned by what other companies are doing. Although in some circumstances, if you know you have stiff competition, you might sharpen your pencil on a specific job. Remember that we're only seeing results for a small portion of the trees that are out there - less than a third, as the rest are being tendered or awarded through private industry. While we have an idea of some of what the competition has, it's hard to know who's filled up and who isn't.

There's also always the wildcard bids that can make any careful strategizing useless. Take Golden for instance, where Brinkman left 20% on the table to us. That's the second worst gap left this spring , second only to Nata's 26% stinker on 2.3 million trees in Prince George. Brinkman hadn't bid on any other government contracts up to that point but popped in with a stinker. You never know. We'd heard that Columbia Extreme who should have been the real local competition in Golden, has gone the way of the Dodo?? I suppose Brinkman sees this job as a bridge between the BC interior and the Alberta season and unfortunately are willing to buy it. Anyway it goes to show that you really just need to put in the right bid without thinking too much about what the competition is going to do.

There are plenty of trees to go round with contracts for many millions of trees opening over the next 3 weeks. You just never know though as individual companies may feel the pressure to fill in gaps in their schedule. Just when you're feeling somewhat cozy in a certain area, a contractor who's never bid in your area drops in from elsewhere in the province and blows you away with a stinker. They don't know that they'll be dealing with the Checkers from Hell. I've seen it happen again and again.

[Scooter]

Re. Columbia Extreme ... that was Mark Teasdale's company, I believe? He and I planted together at Tawa back around 1993/94. I think I heard that he got married two years ago, but I'm not certain about that.

[Scooter]

BCTS Prince George, PL14TGC003 (Summer)


Spectrum - $236,904
Celtic - $246,549
Corsair - $366,624
Coast Range - $406,052
Dynamic - $497,302
Apex - $497,836
Seneca - $572,290

[shawniganlaker]

BCTS Cascades, 543,000 trees

Coast Range Low, followed by Brinkman. Both pretty low for this ground (Screef to be strictly enforced).

[Scooter]

Here's the breakout for the above Cascades job:


Coast Range - $167,079 (30.8 cents per tree)
Brinkman - $177,671 (32.7 cents per tree)
A&G - $182,429 (33.6 cents per tree)
Quastuco - $186,548 (34.4 cents per tree)
Evergreen - $189,140 (34.8 cents per tree)
Zanzibar - $198,567 (36.6 cents per tree)
Dewan - $206,551 (38.0 cents per tree)
Seneca - $208,501 (38.4 cents per tree)
Leader - $212,793 (39.2 cents per tree)
Raven Ventures - $229,606 (42.3 cents per tree)
Apex - $229,900 (42.3 cents per tree)

[Mike]

Was there a 2008-2009 bid thread that was named "Race to the bottom" or was that the 2010 Public Bid thread, later renamed by Scooter? If so, can I get the 2008 or 2009 Bid threads linked into the top please?

[Scooter]

I don't think there was. I think we started in the fall of 2010, discussing bids for the spring/summer of 2011. I kind of vaguely remember a couple of isolated posts being made about bids the previous year in separate threads, which got me to thinking that it would be a good annual topic for conversation.

My memory might be off, but I can't find anything in a quick search right now.

[Scooter]

I stand corrected, here are some (I just renamed that thread):

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=64459&p=73527#p73527