2019 Public Bid Results

Post by **Scooter** » Fri Nov 16, 2018 1:27 pm

Here are the results for a contract for Brushing in Boundary

Contract: BR20TFF002
Client: BCTS Nelson
Season: Calendar 2019
Opened: October 25, 2018
Scope: 142.7 Ha
Left on the Table: 41.6%

This contract covers four unit of work. This is a three year OTR. Based on how much was left on the table, it'll be interesting to see if Hamelin is interested in renewing for 2020.

I think this catches up the Brushing tenders. Now on to this week's planting results.

01. $ 87,266 - Hamelin Silviculture
02. $123,590 - West Arm Silviculture
03. $132,645 - All Stars
04. $135,169 - Switchback Silviculture
05. $155,992 - Mihis Silviculture
06. $157,003 - Celtic

Post by **Scooter** » Fri Nov 16, 2018 1:34 pm

Here are the results for a contract for Planting in Burns Lake

Contract: SILV-PL19
Client: Silvicon
# of Trees: 400,000
Season: Spring 2019
Left on the Table: 21.3%

I wonder if Waterside knows about the recent bidding trends. It may be hard to attract planters with this bid price. Mind you, this can be done by a very small crew.

01. $131,200 - 32.8 cents/tree - Waterside
02. $159,200 - 39.8 cents/tree - Hybrid 17
03. $169,200 - 42.3 cents/tree - Whanau Forestry
04. $169,984 - 42.5 cents/tree - Folklore
05. $182,800 - 45.7 cents/tree - Windfirm
06. $275,160 - 68.8 cents/tree - Artisan

Post by **Scooter** » Fri Nov 16, 2018 2:11 pm

Here are the results for a contract for Planting in Vernon North

Contract: PL20TKJ006
Client: BCTS Vernon
Season: Spring 2019
# of Trees: 619,500
Opened: November 14, 2018
Left on the Table: 3.9%

This is an interesting one. Seneca already had this contract, going into year three of a three-year renewable at 31.6 cents. They obviously must have decided that it wasn't worth it, then dropped it and bid on it again in the open market. Luckily for them, they won it, at a significant higher price (only slightly below the weighted average low bid price for the season so far).

01. $272,112 - 43.9 cents/tree - Seneca
02. $282,718 - 45.6 cents/tree - Raven
03. $345,929 - 55.8 cents/tree - All Stars

Post by **Scooter** » Fri Nov 16, 2018 2:24 pm

Here are the results for a contract for Planting in Kamloops

Contract: PL20DTR003
Client: MOF Kamloops
# of Trees: 326,000
Season: Spring 2019
Opened: October 10, 2018
Left on the Table: 28.3%

This one was opened a while ago. Small contract, high price, but tough. Unfortunately that Seneca left quite a bit on the table with this one, similar to their other early bid, before they realized that prices were finally starting to recover.

01. $254,133 - 77.9 cents/tree - Seneca
02. $326,021 - $1.00 per tree - Zanzibar

Post by **Scooter** » Fri Nov 16, 2018 2:51 pm

Here are the results for a contract for Planting in Williams Lake

Contract: PL20TLE001
Client: BCTS Williams Lake
# of Trees: 1,911,393
Season: Spring 2018
Opened: November 15, 2018
Left on the Table: 0.1%

This one is somewhat spread out, with the two western-most blocks out past Tatla Lake (almost three hours west of Williams Lake), and the eastern-most block on the east side of highway 97. There are also several blocks in two separate areas to the north of highway 20 (some of which I planted in 2016, and which then burned in the 2017 wildfires).

01. $ 954,615 - 49.9 cents/tree - Coast Range
02. $ 961,431 - 50.3 cents/tree - NGR
03. $ 980,105 - 51.3 cents/tree - Apex
04. $1,072,303 - 56.1 cents/tree - Folklore
05. $1,108,608 - 58.0 cents/tree - Dynamic
06. $1,190,489 - 62.3 cents/tree - Seneca
07. $1,246,663 - 65.2 cents/tree - Blue Collar
08. $1,306,911 - 68.4 cents/tree - Celtic

Post by **Scooter** » Fri Nov 16, 2018 2:56 pm

YTD Viewing/Bidding Season Stats, Week Ending November 16th, 2018

Running totals for this season, Fall of 2018:

Overall weighted average low bid: 46.4 cents/tree
Overall weighted average awarded bid: 47.9 cents/tree
Overall weighted average including all bids, all jobs: 56.3 cents/tree

Average increase in overall bid prices since last fall: 44.7%

Total Trees Known/Decided So Far: 20,263,253
Total Trees in Public Tenders to Date: 56,716,595

One Year Ago, Fall of 2017:

Overall weighted average low bid: 32.0 cents/tree
Overall weighted average awarded bid: not tracked in 2017
Overall weighted average including all bids, all jobs: 38.9 cents/tree

Total Trees in Public Tenders last year: 53,827,000

------

It's been a busy week. There will be quite a few more results posted here next week, and the week after. There are still three openings that I don't yet have information for, and there are eight more contracts opening next week (plus five the following week).

There's a PDF summary attached to this post.

Cyper · Post by **Cyper** » Mon Nov 19, 2018 8:41 am

BCTS Boundary opened on November 15th. There appears to have been only one bidder. Is that a first? Will they award that or retender it? The bid is 24% higher than the awarded price last year.

Post by **Scooter** » Mon Nov 19, 2018 8:48 am

Wow, I just saw that result now. I don't recall any planting bids in the past eight years that were single-bidder, although I can think of at least one coastal job that only had two bidders. Evergreen must be simultaneously pleased, and heartbroken. How does one mark down the amount left on the table when it's "infinity"? Mind you, if Evergreen had bid an unrealistically high amount, BCTS probably wouldn't accept the tender. In this case, a 24% increase in price over last year is good for Evergreen, but also must look pretty good to BCTS in light of the trends elsewhere throughout the province. I think that BCTS would be making a big mistake not to accept that bid. I'll post those results later this afternoon.

Post by **Scooter** » Mon Nov 19, 2018 10:53 am

Here are the results for a contract for Planting in Williams Lake

Contract: PL20TLE002
Client: BCTS Williams Lake
# of Trees: 2,943,453
Season: Spring 2019
Opened: November 19, 2018
Left on the Table: 4.3%

This is going to be interesting. I'll get to plant quite a few of the same blocks that I planted in 2016, which have subsequently burned in wildfires. This contract includes one large block which is three quarters of a million trees.

01. $1,300,829 - 44.2 cents/tree - Folklore
02. $1,356,835 - 46.1 cents/tree - Dynamic
03. $1,360,651 - 46.2 cents/tree - Blue Collar
04. $1,460,263 - 49.6 cents/tree - Coast Range
05. $1,483,017 - 50.4 cents/tree - Apex
06. $1,524,448 - 51.8 cents/tree - Celtic
07. $1,746,682 - 59.3 cents/tree - Seneca

Post by **Scooter** » Mon Nov 19, 2018 4:46 pm

Here are the results for a contract for Planting in Clearwater

Contract: PL20TEE001
Client: BCTS Clearwater
Season: Spring 2019
Opened: November 19, 2018
# of Trees: 1,028,230
Option-to-Renew: Yes, 5 years
Left on the Table: 25.4%

This contract was Dynamic's already (going into the fall), in an existing Option-To-Renew. It looks like negotiations to increase the price must have been unsuccessful, because Dynamic dropped the job and it went back out to tender this month. Dynamic was obviously still interested in the work, preferring a more appropriate price (last year's price was 48.7 cents), and they won the re-tender. So a lot was unfortunately left on the table, but in the end, it's a price increase from last year.

01. $587,016 - 57.1 cents/tree - Dynamic
02. $736,027 - 71.6 cents/tree - Evergreen
03. $757,531 - 73.7 cents/tree - Brinkman
04. $778,536 - 75.7 cents/tree - Celtic
05. $969,518 - 94.3 cents/tree - Seneca

Post by **Scooter** » Mon Nov 19, 2018 5:01 pm

Here are the results for a contract for Planting in Boundary

Contract: PL20TFF001
Client: BCTS Boundary
Season: Spring 2019
Opened: November 15, 2018
# of Trees: 1,198,832
Left on the Table: Can't divide by zero, Jack, unless you have a Riemann sphere

One bidder.

01. $589,174.19 - 49.1 cents/tree - Evergreen

Post by **Scooter** » Tue Nov 20, 2018 11:51 am

Here are the results for a contract for Planting near Kootenay Lake

Contract: PL20TFD001
Client: BCTS Nelson
Season: Spring 2018
Opened: November 20, 2018
# of Trees: 897,990
Left on the Table: 20.7%

Another contract for West Arm. Unfortunate for them to have left more than $100k on the table. I don't think this company is part of the Western Forestry Contractors' Association.

01. $547,621 - 61.0 cents/tree - West Arm
02. $661,030 - 73.6 cents/tree - Brinkman
03. $750,887 - 83.6 cents/tree - Evergreen

Post by **Scooter** » Tue Nov 20, 2018 3:56 pm

Here are the results for a contract for Brushing in Arrow South

Contract: BR20TFG005
Client: BCTS Nelson
Season: Spring/Summer 2019
Opened: November 20, 2018
Scope: 168.4 Ha plus 50 person-days at day-rate
Left on the Table: 21.8%

This job involves brushing on a total of ten units, all within about 100km of Castlegar. There is some pretty steep ground here, and also some steep access roads. The contract calls for a start date before leaves are full-out, and has a minimum production requirement of 4 Ha/day on five-day work week. So at 20 Ha minimum per week, the longest this job could go would be about eight weeks. There is also a requirement for fifty person-days doing additional brushing work. The tender offer form specifies that this is based on a 12-hour work day including travel time. I know that the government needs to ensure that they're getting the most bang for their buck, and I'm not stranger to long work days while planting, but running a saw for that length of a work day seems a bit aggressive in terms of safety. And with such steep ground, there's a good chance that chain saws will be in use too, not just brush saws (this is my opinion only; I didn't see the blocks).

01. $135,138 - Wildhorse
02. $164,565 - West Arm
03. $184,668 - Hamelin Silviculture

Post by **Scooter** » Wed Nov 21, 2018 12:43 pm

Here are the results for a contract for Planting in Kamloops

Contract: PL20TED001
Client: BCTS Kamloops
Season: Spring 2019
Opened: November 20, 2018
# of Trees: 1,734,752
Left on the Table: 3.0%

This is the normal Kamloops job, not the job that is mostly burned. This contract went for 28.6 cents in the fall of 2017 (it was also very spread out that year).

01. $ 825,006 - 47.5 cents/tree - Folklore
02. $ 849,973 - 49.0 cents/tree - Zanzibar
03. $ 960,943 - 55.4 cents/tree - Seneca
04. $1,027,230 - 59.2 cents/tree - Apex
05. $1,054,709 - 60.8 cents/tree - Celtic
06. $1,064,294 - 61.4 cents/tree - Dynamic
07. $1,263,583 - 72.8 cents/tree - Coast Range

Post by **Scooter** » Wed Nov 21, 2018 12:59 pm

Here are the results for another contract for Planting in Kamloops

Contract: PL20TED002
Client: BCTS Kamloops
Season: Spring 2019
Opened: November 20, 2018
# of Trees: 1,886,975
Left on the Table: 17.3%

This contract has blocks in three clusters. I looked at all of the blocks, so I know quite a bit about this one. There is a group of blocks in Scottie Creek, in the burn area. There is a second group of blocks in Hihium, which is over to the east. And finally, there is a group of fresher blocks north of the Hihium blocks, in the Chasm area (these blocks actually fall within the 100 Mile district, but are being managed out of Kamloops). Unfortunately, there is no direct road access between Scottie and Hihium, even though it looks like it on the maps (and they're only about 30km apart). The drive around (out to the highway, down through Cache Creek, then up the Deadman road) is almost two hours. In other words, this contract will need two (and possibly three) separate camp locations. Also, although two thirds of the blocks burned, there are quite a few green surviving trees on many of the blocks, that will need to be respected (ie. there is a lot of fill planting). One bonus about the fill planting is that it will be fairly straightforward because the spacing will be off planted trees, not off regen (which means that the existing trees are spaced properly).

01. $ 776,506 - 41.1 cents/tree - Rhino
02. $ 910,553 - 48.3 cents/tree - Folklore
03. $ 975,128 - 51.7 cents/tree - Seneca
04. $ 982,383 - 52.1 cents/tree - Celtic
05. $1,023,488 - 54.2 cents/tree - Dynamic
06. $1,148,540 - 60.9 cents/tree - Coast Range
07. $1,148,963 - 60.9 cents/tree - Blue Collar
08. $1,184,025 - 62.7 cents/tree - Zanzibar
09. $1,188,831 - 63.0 cents/tree - Apex

Post by **Scooter** » Wed Nov 21, 2018 1:14 pm

Here are the results for a contract for Brushing in Arrow North

Contract: BR20TKR002
Client: BCTS Nelson
Season: 2019
Opened: November 21, 2018
Scope: 130.4 Ha, plus 90 person-day dayrates
Left on the Table: 30.5%

More brushing.

01. $145,944 - GRM
02. $190,400 - All Stars

Post by **Scooter** » Thu Nov 22, 2018 2:21 pm

Here are the results for another contract for Planting in Williams Lake

Contract: PL20TLE003
Client: BCTS Williams Lake
Season: Spring 2019
Opened: November 22, 2018
# of Trees: 1,965,866
Left on the Table: 2.2%

This is low price compared to most that we've seen lately, but it's a pretty nice contract.

01. $ 776,068 - 39.5 cents/tree - Apex
02. $ 792,762 - 40.3 cents/tree - Coast Range
03. $ 824,610 - 41.9 cents/tree - Blue Collar
04. $ 837,877 - 42.6 cents/tree - Dynamic
05. $ 975,899 - 49.6 cents/tree - Celtic
06. $ 994,160 - 50.6 cents/tree - Folklore (revised upward from original bid of $895,867)
07. $1,154,888 - 58.7 cents/tree - Seneca

Post by **Scooter** » Thu Nov 22, 2018 4:52 pm

I've received information that on the 100 Mile brushing bid, Navrom & Mihis did indeed bid exactly the same amount, and it went to some sort of a 'tie-breaker' which Navrom won. It also sounds like the contract didn't start or finish on time.

If you're wondering what I'm referring to, it's contract BR19TEG011, referenced in this post:
viewtopic.php?f=27&t=67246&p=92180#p92180

Post by **Scooter** » Fri Nov 23, 2018 9:38 am

YTD Viewing/Bidding Season Stats, Week Ending November 23rd, 2018

Running totals for this season, Fall of 2018:

Overall weighted average low bid: 46.4 cents/tree
Overall weighted average awarded bid: 47.3 cents/tree
Overall weighted average including all bids, all jobs: 55.6 cents/tree

Average increase in overall bid prices since last fall: 42.9%

Total Trees Known/Decided So Far: 31,919,351
Total Trees in Public Tenders to Date: 56,631,716

One Year Ago, Fall of 2017:

Overall weighted average low bid: 32.0 cents/tree
Overall weighted average awarded bid: not tracked in 2017
Overall weighted average including all bids, all jobs: 38.9 cents/tree

Total Trees in Public Tenders last year: 53,827,000

------

With a large number of bids opened this week, the support for higher prices has remained strong. The average low bid price is unchanged, despite a number of easier contracts opening this past week. The overall average bid price has dropped by a very small amount, but once we see results from the four hidden MOF contracts that have already opened (two in Quesnel, one in Castlegar, one in Vernon), those numbers will presumably bring the numbers back into an upward trend.

Jobs opening in the upcoming week include 478k in Vernon, 1.06m in Smithers, 2.17m in Mackenzie, and 4.95m in two separate contracts in Quesnel, for a total of about 8.7m more trees. After that, there will still be quite a few jobs to be awarded throughout December and post-Christmas, although the results for the remaining work will be quite spread out compared to the rapid slew of results from November.

At the moment, there are numerous companies who are already fully committed for the 2019 season, and despite this, there are still more than 25 million BCTS/MOF trees that haven't been awarded.

Post by **Scooter** » Mon Nov 26, 2018 1:56 pm

Here are the results for a contract for Planting in TOC North

Contract: PL20TKJ010
Client: BCTS Vernon
Season: Spring/Summer 2019
Opened: November 26, 2018
# of Trees: 477,750
Left on the Table: 1.6%

This is probably the "best" bid of the season so far, with respect to the category of tightest bid spread from lowest to highest.

01. $231,195 - 48.4 cents/tree - Raven Ventures
02. $234,873 - 49.2 cents/tree - All Stars
03. $247.043 - 51.7 cents/tree - Seneca

Post by **Scooter** » Mon Nov 26, 2018 3:03 pm

Here are results for a contract for Planting in Castlegar

Contract: PL20DSE001
Client: MOF Castlegar
Season: Spring 2019
Opened: November 22, 2018
# of Trees: 293,100
Left on the Table: 17.9%

This was opened late last week.

01. $190,196 - 64.9 cents/tree - Zanzibar
02. $224,273 - 76.5 cents/tree - NGR
03. $232,012 - 79.2 cents/tree - All Stars
04. $267,468 - 91.3 cents/tree - Evergreen

Post by **Scooter** » Tue Nov 27, 2018 2:21 pm

Here are results for a contract for Planting in Quesnel

Contract: PL20TLH004
Client: BCTS Quesnel
Season: Spring 2019
Opened: November 27, 2018
# of Trees: 1,963,920
Left on the Table: 2.6%

The per-tree price on this one is very low with respect to bidding trends throughout the province this year. Planters will definitely want to stay away from this contract.

01. $ 621,699 - 31.7 cents/tree - AKD
02. $ 637,746 - 32.5 cents/tree - Dewan
03. $ 746,848 - 38.0 cents/tree - Seneca
04. $ 802,292 - 40.9 cents/tree - Coast Range
05. $ 808,716 - 41.2 cents/tree - Dynamic
06. $ 809,617 - 41.2 cents/tree - Blue Collar
07. $ 812,629 - 41.4 cents/tree - Apex
08. $ 872,428 - 44.4 cents/tree - Celtic
09. $1,032,798 - 52.6 cents/tree - Folklore

Cyper · Post by **Cyper** » Tue Nov 27, 2018 5:07 pm

Too bad for AKD & Dewan that they weren't on the WFCA mailing list! Do these companies hire from a different pool of planters?
I see that Dynamic jumped past Coast Range due to the contractor rating system which means Dynamic's rating is at least .8% higher than Coast Range.

jdtesluk · Post by **jdtesluk** » Tue Nov 27, 2018 5:11 pm

One may wonder how they will even pay workers in compliance with employment standards, given these bid prices. Has the makings of a disaster.

Post by **Scooter** » Tue Nov 27, 2018 5:30 pm

Cyper wrote: ↑Tue Nov 27, 2018 5:07 pm Too bad for AKD & Dewan that they weren't on the WFCA mailing list! Do these companies hire from a different pool of planters?

I believe that a significant portion of their workforce is generally hired through traditional means (signs, posters, newspaper ads) rather than through contemporary social media, and their employees may not be as well-acquainted with shared industry knowledge as the average planter. I've had parents of AKD planters approaching me for assistance about various issues (do people think of me as the tree planting police?) because the company is somewhat isolationist and unfortunately may not be as professional as most other employers. I believe that they generally avoid advertising jobs on facebook, due to the negative press that they inevitably receive. AKD also does a significant amount of saw work (spacing/thinning/brushing/mistletoe) so they typically rely more upon a permanent workforce than many other planting companies. If anyone here has actually worked for AKD recently, it would be great to have some reviews posted. Here's the proper thread, which is currently empty: viewtopic.php?f=4&t=66717

Cyper wrote: ↑Tue Nov 27, 2018 5:07 pm I see that Dynamic jumped past Coast Range due to the contractor rating system which means Dynamic's rating is at least .8% higher than Coast Range.

Nobody else probably knows what Cyper is referring to here. The original bid sheet (unofficial results) for this contract, which isn't posted here, also includes numbers beside each company to show their official ranking after Contractor Rating System adjustments are applied. Due to those adjustments, we can see that Dynamic was ranked as fourth place and Coast Range was ranked as fifth. Therefore, Dynamic's rating must be more positive than the rating for Coast Range, giving them a slight advantage in bidding. Contractor Rating System adjustments don't typically have a huge influence on the bid results, although there's usually at least one contract each year which is ultimately decided thanks to influence from ratings. For example, Coast Range is listed as the winner of both the 001 and the 003 contracts for BCTS Williams Lake. However, on one of those two contracts (001, the really badly spread-out contract) NGR's rating was enough to drop their ranking down under Coast Range, and they ended up winning that job. Coast Range still has the 003 job (and also the very large MOF Williams Lake job, if rumours are correct).

Post by **Scooter** » Sat Dec 01, 2018 1:23 pm

Apologies everyone, it's been a busy week. I'm trying desperately to get the proof for the 2019 edition of Step By Step off to the printer, so it can be listed on Amazon. I'm guessing that maybe I'll be done by Tuesday, and it might be available on Amazon by around December 13th to 15th. A few weeks later than I had originally hoped, but I ended up working too late this fall to get the revisions done earlier, and the amount of additional content has really slowed me down. Anyway, I have results for several more bids from this past week, and I'll get them all posted here over the next hour or two.

Post by **Scooter** » Sat Dec 01, 2018 1:30 pm

Here are the results for a contract for Planting in Seaward

Contract: PL19THD518
Client: BCTS Port MacNeill
Season: Spring 2019
Opened: November 28, 2018
# of Trees: 778,815
Left on the Table: 5.5%

This one has tea-bags, helicopters, barges, water taxis, you name it. Maybe even a few days of rain.

Data from this contract will not be lumped in with my analysis spreadsheet due to the fact that it is coastal work including many non-tree components, and would bias the numbers in the spreadsheet.

01. $656,031 - 84.2 cents/tree - Brinkman
02. $691,943 - 88.8 cents/tree - Evergreen
03. $893,030 - $1.15 per tree - Fieldstone
04. $910,365 - $1.17 per tree - Rainforest

Post by **Scooter** » Sat Dec 01, 2018 1:59 pm

Here are the results for a contract for Various Silviculture Activities on Haida Gwaii

Contract: PL20TBJ002
Client: BCTS Chilliwack
Season: Spring 2019
Opened: November 29, 2018
# of Trees: 222,392
Left on the Table: 6.3%

Again, the numbers from this contract won't be included in my main summary spreadsheet, as there are numerous silvicultural activities besides planting included in this contract (girdling, brushing, browse barrier installation, browse barrier maintenance) and there is lots of potential barge, water taxi, and helicopter access.

01. $1,070,850 - $4.81 per tree - Osprey
02. $1,138,316 - $5.12 per tree - Stephan Contracting
03. $1,312,878 - $5.90 per tree - Fieldstone

Post by **Scooter** » Sat Dec 01, 2018 2:09 pm

Here are the results for a contract for Planting in Smithers

Contract: PL20TAS100
Client: BCTS Burns Lake
Season: Spring 2019
Opened: November 27, 2018
# of Trees: 1,058,742
Left on the Table: 11.8%

This contract is somewhat spread out, with blocks in three separate clusters. Some are slightly east of Smithers, some are slightly west of Smithers, and some are fairly fair up to the north of Smithers.

01. $399,894 - Whanau Forestry
02. $447,078 - Windfirm
03. $524,142 - Celtic
04. $544,333 - NGR
05. $559,621 - Seneca
06. $585,131 - Apex
07. $658,721 - Dynamic

Post by **Scooter** » Sat Dec 01, 2018 2:30 pm

Here are the results for a contract for Planting in Mackenzie

Contract: PL20TGE002
Client: BCTS Mackenzie
Season: Spring/Summer 2019
Opened: November 29, 2018
Left on the Table: 5.1%

Lots of summer trees in this one.

01. $ 923,093 - 42.6 cents/tree - Coast Range
02. $ 969,922 - 44.8 cents/tree - Celtic
03. $1,146,857 - 52.9 cents/tree - Dynamic
04. $1,147,218 - 52.9 cents/tree - Apex
05. $1,369,505 - 63.2 cents/tree - Folklore
06. $1,380,109 - 63.7 cents/tree - Artisan

Post by **Scooter** » Sat Dec 01, 2018 2:37 pm

Here are the results for a contract for Planting in Quesnel

Contract: PL20TLH005
Client: BCTS Quesnel
Season: Spring 2019
Opened: November 30, 2018
# of Trees: 2,987,128
Left on the Table: 3.4%

Here's a big one for Apex, which doesn't usually seek BCTS work very aggressively.

01. $1,315,751 - 44.0 cents/tree - Apex
02. $1,360,575 - 45.5 cents/tree - Rhino
03. $1,435,068 - 48.0 cents/tree - Coast Range
04. $1,483,302 - 49.7 cents/tree - Blue Collar (revised downward from $1,528,109)
05. $1,562,764 - 52.3 cents/tree - Celtic
06. $1,620,284 - 54.2 cents/tree - Seneca
07. $1,769,089 - 59.2 cents/tree - Folklore

Post by **Scooter** » Sat Dec 01, 2018 2:49 pm

YTD Viewing/Bidding Season Stats, Week Ending November 30th, 2018

Running totals for this season, Fall of 2018:

Overall weighted average low bid: 45.1 cents/tree
Overall weighted average awarded bid: 46.1 cents/tree
Overall weighted average including all bids, all jobs: 54.0 cents/tree

Average increase in overall bid prices since last fall: 38.8%

Total Trees Known/Decided So Far: 40,507,597
Total Trees in Public Tenders to Date: 56,199,621

One Year Ago, Fall of 2017:

Overall weighted average low bid: 32.0 cents/tree
Overall weighted average awarded bid: not tracked in 2017
Overall weighted average including all bids, all jobs: 38.9 cents/tree

Total Trees in Public Tenders last year: 53,827,000

------

The trend for increasing prices has dropped slightly this week, due to a couple of very large & relatively easy contracts opening. The numbers will be adjusted back upwards once the MOF releases the results from the four contracts that they're currently hiding from the public.

There is only one job opening in the upcoming week, so it'll be a slow week (Cascades, BCTS Kamloops, opening on Friday).

At this point, about two-thirds of the public 2019 bids have been awarded. But that still means about twenty million trees to go, once the numbers for Fort St John & Dawson Creek are released and added to the totals.

Post by **Scooter** » Tue Dec 04, 2018 4:08 pm

Here are the results for the RE-TENDER of a previous contract for Planting in Fort St James

Contract: PL20TJE002
Client: BCTS Fort St James
Season: Spring 2019
Opened: November 29, 2018
# of Trees: 2,377,090
Left on the Table: 7.0%

Apparently, a mistake was discovered in the paperwork after the bids were opened the first time that this was tendered (on the government side, there was a spreadsheet error of 18,000 trees on one of the blocks). I'm not sure why this mattered since I thought this one was bid per hectare, but whatever the actual rationale for the re-tender, it happened. You can look earlier in this topic for copies of the relevant tender documents (although the Tender Offer Form has presumably changed slightly).

Anyway, this ended up with slightly more interest on the second round (two more bidders) and a slightly lower price for the contract than the original Coast Range bid (about $13,400 less), although some of the bids were higher than in the initial round. The big question is: Why did Dynamic bid seven cents less the second time around? Are they in need of work that badly?

I've listed these results in order from lowest to highest, numerically on bid price. However, their official rankings (as determined by the BCTS Contractor Rating System) come into play on this bid. Apex doesn't have a ranking (from what we can see) and thus three separate companies are "ahead" of them in bid award order. We've seen a few cases where two bids flipped positions because of the CRS, but this is the first time that someone has been displaced so far (in either direction), moving from 4th to 7th spot in the bid award rankings.

01. $ 959,687 - 40.4 cents/tree - Dynamic
02. $1,026,921 - 43.2 cents/tree - Celtic
03. $1,070,834 - 45.0 cents/tree - Coast Range
04. $1,089,164 - 45.8 cents/tree - Apex
05. $1,097,131 - 46.2 cents/tree - Rhino
06. $1,103,769 - 46.4 cents/tree - Artisan
07. $1,147,485 - 48.3 cents/tree - Blue Collar
08. $1,214,732 - 51.1 cents/tree - Seneca
09. $1,254,888 - 52.8 cents/tree - Folklore

Post by **Scooter** » Fri Dec 07, 2018 3:26 pm

YTD Viewing/Bidding Season Stats, Week Ending November 30th, 2018

Running totals for this season, Fall of 2018:

Overall weighted average low bid: 45.0 cents/tree
Overall weighted average awarded bid: 46.1 cents/tree
Overall weighted average including all bids, all jobs: 53.9 cents/tree

Average increase in overall bid prices since last fall: 38.6%

Total Trees Known/Decided So Far: 40,507,597
Total Trees in Public Tenders to Date: 56,199,621

One Year Ago, Fall of 2017:

Overall weighted average low bid: 32.0 cents/tree
Overall weighted average awarded bid: not tracked in 2017
Overall weighted average including all bids, all jobs: 38.9 cents/tree

Total Trees in Public Tenders last year: 53,827,000

------

Almost nothing happened this week. I had though that a BCTS Cascades job was opening, but that was just a pre-ad, not an official tender. Two jobs open this upcoming week: A very small job in Castlegar, and a very ugly contract in 100 Mile House.

Post by **Scooter** » Tue Dec 11, 2018 8:20 pm

Here are the results for a contract for Planting in 100 Mile House

Contract: PL20TEG025
Client: BCTS 100 Mile House
Season: Spring 2019
Opened: December 11, 2018
# of Trees: 1,382,534
Left on the Table: 0.3%

This contract was extremely well bid. Barely $2,000 separating the lowest three bidders on this contract. Chances are that this is priced properly according to general market sentiment. This contract is in the Elephant Fire zone, all blocks within about an hour of each other. This contract includes just under 300,000 tea-bags, and is also an Option-To-Renew contract. Incidentally, this is NOT the contract that I mentioned as being quite ugly ... that one opens on Thursday.

01. $587,842 - 42.5 cents/tree - Dynamic
02. $589,765 - 42.7 cents/tree - Coast Range
03. $589,884 - 42.7 cents/tree - Apex
04. $606,295 - 43.9 cents/tree - Blue Collar
05. $648,954 - 46.9 cents/tree - Celtic
06. $772,590 - 55.9 cents/tree - Seneca
07. $814,709 - 58.9 cents/tree - Zanzibar
08. $988,036 - 71.5 cents/tree - Folklore

philnyedaplanterguy · Wed Dec 12, 2018 11:06 am

Scooter wrote: ↑Fri Dec 07, 2018 3:26 pm and a very ugly contract in 100 Mile House

Do you know who is currently working this one? I got a position on a blue collar crew this season and I know this is one of the areas they are planting in. I'm told we'll probably be around there for a month, which is a long time to be planting a shitty contract. What make it ugly?

Post by **Scooter** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 11:48 am

It hasn't been awarded yet. It opens tomorrow. Coast Range and Apex appear to still be seeking work fairly aggressively, so one of those two companies might get it. Dynamic too, although since they won the other 100 Mile contract yesterday, it's hard to say if they'll back off or not. This is all purely speculation though, we'll find out tomorrow.

The contract that Blue Collar currently has in 100 Mile is a multi-year contract that they won two years ago, working for the Ministry of Forests rather than for BCTS. So they're still working with the same approximate pricing levels as they've had since they won it. This tells me one of two things. Either it was a good enough contract (in a recent contemporary historical context) that they wanted to keep planting it at the same prices as the past (despite knowing that prices were increasing elsewhere), OR they recommitted and signed for the third year too early, before realizing that prices were going up. My guess is that it's more likely the former happened. If planters were unhappy with that contract, Blue Collar would have probably dropped it going into year 2.

Also, don't confuse "ugly" with "shitty." I call it ugly because it's very spread out, and there are a lot of very rocky blocks. But at the right price, it would be a great contract.

I probably won't post the results until Friday or Saturday afternoon. I'm on the east coast, bartending tomorrow night and throughout the weekend. Not really paying a lot of close attention to the bidding right now, since I've left the west coast.

philnyedaplanterguy · Wed Dec 12, 2018 12:20 pm

Scooter wrote: ↑Wed Dec 12, 2018 11:48 am It hasn't been awarded yet.

Right, that should have been obvious given the nature of the thread. Thanks

Post by **Scooter** » Sat Dec 15, 2018 8:33 am

Here are the results for another contract for Planting in 100 Mile House

Contract: PL20TEG032
Client: BCTS 100 Mile House
Season: Spring 2019
Opened: December 13, 2018
# of Trees: 2,231,406
Left on the Table: 11.5%

This contract is quite spread out and has a lot of rocky blocks, hence the higher average bids than the other 100 Mile House job for BCTS. When you look at the bids by Blue Collar and Apex, it's obvious that they both recognized this, and bid accordingly. I suspect that Celtic must have either: (1) not looked at the contract, which is very unlikely because they're usually one of the most diligent about viewing blocks that they're bidding on, or (2) didn't have enough spring work and realized that this is one of the last large spring jobs to be opened in an area where it's usually possible to start fairly early (late April). I should point out that these prices are still higher than last year's.

The attached graphic shows the locations of all the block, in a variety of different coloured pins. Green/Orange/Purple are blocks on this contract. The tight cluster of red pins represents all of the blocks on other 100 Mile contract, PL20TEG025. Disregard the "2017" on the screen - that's just because the underlying map that I used was from 2017. The pins are for the 2019 contracts.

01. $ 898,267 - 40.3 cents/tree - Celtic
02. $1,001,527 - 44.9 cents/tree - Seneca
03. $1,064,004 - 47.7 cents/tree - Zanzibar
04. $1,226,011 - 55.0 cents/tree - Blue Collar
05. $1,262,166 - 56.6 cents/tree - Apex
06. $1,548,873 - 69.4 cents/tree - Folklore

---

Post by **Scooter** » Fri Dec 28, 2018 9:59 am

Hello everyone, I'm back in the saddle.

First of all, I have results here for the MOF Quesnel contract #PL20DQU001. That job was awarded to Blue Collar. $579,635 for 1,239,538 trees, which works out to 46.7 cents per tree. The Ministry office in Quesnel is being unusually reticent about revealing full bid results to the public for that job. I'm not sure why, considering that it's public money, and considering that their salaries are paid for by the BC taxpaying public. It seems rather secretive and unprofessional. So I don't know if Blue Collar was the only bidder (I doubt it), and I don't know if they were the low bidder on that contract. It's possible that other companies may have had lower initial bids, but then ended up walking away from their bids because they secured other work in the meantime while waiting to find out if they won. While this is probably a hypothetical scenario, it does illustrate that if a forester does not notify the low bidder in a timely manner, then he/she could end up costing the taxpayers unnecessary money by having to sign with a company that put in a higher bid. On a positive note, a FOI request should be able to release the full bid results and eliminate any potential curiousity about what happened. Public money that is shrouded in secrecy is always suspicious.

My apologies for being somewhat distracted and not paying sufficient attention to this topic for the past four or five weeks. I was wrapped up in getting the 2019 edition of Step By Step online, and the revisions to this year's edition occupied just about every spare waking hour that I've had for the past four months. If you'll allow me to go onto a tangent for a moment, I'll share a copy of the YouTube ad for the book in this post, so you can see what it involved. I'll be presenting at the WFCA conference in Victoria on Wednesday afternoon, January 30th (about safety, not about the book), and I'll try to bring a dozen or so author copies that I can sell in person at a slight discount to the Amazon price. I'll be flying there out of Halifax, just for two days, so I won't be able to bring a large number of copies.

I've attached the most recent version of the Fall 2018 bidding summary spreadsheet to this post. Updates include firm opening dates for Chilliwack, Cascades, and Dawson Creek BCTS jobs. I'm not sure if I'll include the Chilliwack numbers in the final summary, as that job includes some browse protection installation/maintenance/removal, which will potentially bias our numbers for pure planting contracts. Right now, there are four more jobs to open in January that I'm aware of, one more job (Fort St John BCTS) which hasn't been tendered yet but which is a possibility (?), and no full result sheets on FIVE separate MOF jobs.

Later in January or early February, I'll be doing a more in-depth analysis of all the known pricing for the 2019 planting season, which I'll share here. In the meantime, I guess we won't see too much activity here until BCTS Quesnel PL20TLH006 opens on January 15th. That office is much more timely in releasing results than the MOF office in Quesnel.

Happy New Year...

Post by **Scooter** » Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:57 pm

Here are the results for a contract for Planting in Quesnel

Contract: PL20TLH006
Client: BCTS Quesnel
Season: Spring 2019
Opened: January 15th, 2019
# of Trees: 2,194,960
Left on the Table: 13.6%

This contract also has about 100,000 ferts.

01. $ 844,012 - 38.5 cents/tree - Apex
02. $ 958,676 - 43.7 cents/tree - Rhino
03. $ 975,487 - 44.4 cents/tree - Seneca
04. $ 998,783 - 45.5 cents/tree - Coast Range
05. $1,087,349 - 49.5 cents/tree - Blue Collar

Post by **Scooter** » Wed Jan 23, 2019 6:29 pm

Here are the results for a coastal contract for Planting on the Sunshine Coast

Contract: PL19TBP003
Client: BCTS Boundary
Season: Spring 2019
Opened: January 18th, 2019
# of trees: 222,000
Contractor Rating System: Yes
Left on the Table: N/A

Here's another one that was an open field, with Evergreen being the only bidder. This contract is very similar to the job in 2017 (when Evergreen won it for 62 cents/tree), ie. some barge and boat work, and all 512's. Integrity won it in 2018 for 40 cents, so this is proper recovery and more. I will not be adding the data from this contract into our tracking spreadsheet about Interior bidding, as the job is not comparable to the majority of Interior planting contracts.

01. $189,298 - 85.3 cents/tree - Evergreen

Post by **Scooter** » Wed Jan 23, 2019 7:45 pm

Here are the results for a contract for Planting in Chilliwack/Sea-To-Sky

Contract: PL20TBB001
Client: BCTS Chilliwack
Season: Spring and Fall 2019
Opened: January 17th, 2019
Left on the Table: 33.3%

This one is complex, so it's worth reading through the attached documents if you're curious. The contract includes trees, ferts, browse protection, day-rate work, tough access, and more challenges. I won't be including data from this contract in the Interior bidding summary spreadsheet, because it's not a typical planting contract. From the ITT:

The BCTS project has a spring and fall plant. There are 9 blocks currently planned for plantskydd re-application. There is an estimated 1,009,000 trees to plant this spring and an estimated 233,000 trees to plant this fall on plus or minus124 blocks. 40 of those blocks are for burned debris pile planting if they are burned. Of the 124 blocks, 69 of them or 56% are in the Chilliwack district and 55 or 44% are in the Sea to Sky district. There are 18 blocks that require at time of planting plantskydd application on approximately 109,000 trees. There are 10 fill plants and 4 replants due to wildfires. Additionally, there are currently 24 overflow blocks within the Chilliwack Forest District that the bidders will submit a unit price for.

01. $ 704,478 - 69.8 cents/tree - Fieldstone
02. $ 939,030 - 93.1 cents/tree - Zanzibar
03. $10,733,231 - $10.64 per tree - Leader

Post by **Scooter** » Wed Jan 23, 2019 8:00 pm

Here are the results for a contract for Planting in Merritt/Cascades

Contract: PL20TEF600
Client: BCTS Merritt
Season: Spring 2019
Opened: January 22, 2019
# of Trees: 2,024,635
Left on the Table: Insignificant

This one was tight. Leader is probably going to get charged with beastiality, they screwed the Rhino so hard.

01. $ 889,231 - 43.9 cents/tree - Leader
02. $ 889,572 - 43.9 cents/tree - Rhino
03. $ 924,798 - 45.7 cents/tree - Zanzibar
04. $1,105,548 - 54.6 cents/tree - Apex
05. $1,193,397 - 58.9 cents/tree - Seneca
06. $1,223,502 - 60.4 cents/tree - Brinkman
07. $1,253,040 - 61.9 cents/tree - Coast Range

jdtesluk · Post by **jdtesluk** » Wed Jan 23, 2019 11:37 pm

Scooter wrote: ↑Wed Jan 23, 2019 7:45 pm
01. $ 704,478 - 69.8 cents/tree - Fieldstone
02. $ 939,030 - 93.1 cents/tree - Zanzibar
03. $10,733,231 - $10.64 per tree - Leader

Them be some real fancy trees they be planting......or there's a random "0" where there shouldn't be.

Wow, that Merritt job. $341 margin. Great bid indeed. Almost makes up for not getting that $10 million job they had their eyes on

Post by **Scooter** » Wed Jan 23, 2019 11:41 pm

I was trying to decide between:
A) Typo
B) Hope for a lottery win where nobody else bids
C) A statement to the rest of the industry about the desirability of that job

Post by **Scooter** » Thu Jan 24, 2019 9:11 am

YTD Viewing/Bidding Season Stats, Week Ending January 24th, 2019

Running totals for this season, Fall of 2018 (and winter 2019):

Overall weighted average low bid: 44.5 cents/tree
Overall weighted average awarded bid: 45.3 cents/tree
Overall weighted average including all bids, all jobs: 53.3 cents/tree

Average increase in overall bid prices since last fall: 37.0%

Total Trees Known/Decided So Far: 49,580,670
Total Trees in Public Tenders to Date: 57,766,397

One Year Ago, Fall of 2017 (and winter 2018):

Overall weighted average low bid: 32.0 cents/tree
Overall weighted average awarded bid: not tracked in 2017
Overall weighted average including all bids, all jobs: 38.9 cents/tree

Total Trees in Public Tenders last year: 53,827,000

-----

Not too much left to open. Dawson Creek & Fort St. John. The WFCA conference is next week, and I'll be there, so I'm looking forward to talking to some of the company owners about their thoughts on what has happened this fall, and where things are heading in the near future.

Post by **Scooter** » Sat Feb 02, 2019 9:29 am

Here are partial results for a contract for Planting in Quesnel

Contract: PL20DQU002
Client: MOF Quesnel
# of Trees: 1,751,595
Left on the Table: 28.0%

This one, like all contracts originating out of the MOF Quesnel office, is shrouded in secrecy. I'm not sure why, but it seems that something funny is going on in that office.

I have a set of results from the contract, and I know which companies bid, but I don't have complete information about which companies are attached to each individual bid. It seems that the general public is apparently not mature enough to be trusted with that information. I've managed to informally determine which bids were tied to several specific bidders, but since I have an incomplete picture at this time, I'll just leave it all up to the imagination. I can share that the following ten companies were the alleged bidders on this contract: Seneca, NGR, Blue Collar, Coast Range, Zanzibar, Apex, Dewan, Folklore, Celtic, and Dynamic.

Notably, the contract has been awarded to NGR, which had the bid of $846,020. That's the fourth-place bid. Over 15 cents per tree above the lowest bidder. I think the lowest bidder wasn't awarded the job because it was a terribly misjudged bid, although I'm not sure whether the contractor dropped it or the MOF office told them that their bid was not appropriate. The next two companies probably passed because it took so long to get results, and they probably filled up with other work in the meantime.

On a positive note, this is a reflection of earlier thoughts that some companies would end up getting some high priced jobs late in the bidding season by exercising discipline and patience.

Here are the cloaked bids:

01. $ 578,653 - 33.0 cents/tree
02. $ 740,566 - 42.3 cents/tree
03. $ 818,803 - 46.7 cents/tree
04. $ 846,020 - 48.3 cents/tree - Next Generation Reforestation (awarded contract)
05. $ 850,548 - 48.6 cents/tree
06. $ 878,258 - 50.1 cents/tree
07. $ 883,832 - 50.5 cents/tree
08. $ 951,266 - 54.3 cents/tree
09. $ 971,985 - 55.5 cents/tree
10. $1,006,033 - 57.4 cents/tree

Post by **Scooter** » Sat Feb 02, 2019 9:37 am

In other news, the MOF Castlegar contract PL20DSE002 which opened on December 12th, for 103,700 trees, had zero bidders. I guess they'll have to retender it. It would have been quite amusing if Leader had put a ten million dollar bid on that one.

Post by **Scooter** » Sat Feb 02, 2019 9:55 am

Here are the results for a contract for Planting in Dawson Creek

Contract: PL20TDE001
Client: BCTS Dawson Creek
Season: Summer 2019
# of Trees: 2,107,228
Left on the Table: 3.8%

Summer trees for Spectrum.

01. $ 927,238 - 44.0 cents/tree - Spectrum
02. $ 962,584 - 45.7 cents/tree - Dynamic
03. $1,133,870 - 53.8 cents/tree - Coast Range
04. $1,230,453 - 58.4 cents/tree - NGR
05. $1,285,601 - 61.0 cents/tree - Celtic
06. $1,292,275 - 61.3 cents/tree - Apex
07. $1,921,398 - 91.2 cents/tree - Folklore