2023 Public Bid Results

Post by **Scooter** » Wed Oct 12, 2022 7:08 pm

Welcome to the Fall 2022 Viewing Season Public Bid Results forum.

I just posted my somewhat annual blog post with reflections about the current State Of The Industry. From year to year, you can always find the most recent version of my SOTI at:

www.replant.ca/stateoftheindustry

And now, some results:

.

Post by **Scooter** » Mon Oct 17, 2022 3:46 pm

Here are the results for a contract for Planting in Campbell River

This coastal tender opened a couple months ago, and I believe the Fall portion of this contract is already complete.

Contract: PL23TCG023
Client: BCTS Campbell River
# of Trees: 683,210
Opened: August 8th, 2022
Contractor Rating System: Yes
Left on the Table: 3.4%

The Fall portion of this job was 247,600 trees and 3,990 ferts.
The Spring portion of this job was 735,610 trees and 42,130 ferts.

01. $479,565 - 70.2 cents/tree - Zanzibar
02. $495,655 - 72.5 cents/tree - Evergreen
03. Unknown - Leader (disqualified)

It's unknown why Leader was disqualified. Could have been something as simple as a missing signature on the bid submission documentation.

Post by **Scooter** » Mon Oct 17, 2022 3:53 pm

Something is currently wrong with my server. Everything is loading slowly, and I can't upload documents properly. Perhaps it's a DDoS attack, but I don't see the traffic. I also need to get the phpBB forum software updated. I'm trying to figure out the problem, but I don't know if this will take hours or days. Bear with me. I'll try to get at least all the text posts written up this afternoon and evening, even if I have to upload the supporting documents later.

Edit: The problem is partially fixed, but not completely. I have an IT friend who is going to help tomorrow by updating the board software and the PHP version on the server, plus a bunch of other stuff, while I'm working on some other stuff. So hopefully this won't take too long to solve.

Post by **Scooter** » Mon Oct 17, 2022 5:50 pm

Here are the results for a contract for Planting on South Vancouver Island

Contract: PL23TCD021
Client: BCTS Campbell River
# of Trees: 154,000
Opened: August 23rd, 2022
Contractor Rating System: No
Left on the Table: 24.3%

01. $ 93,153 - 60.5 cents/tree - Sitka
02. $115,825 - 75.2 cents/tree - Leader
03. $127,508 - 82.8 cents/tree - Zanzibar

Post by **Scooter** » Mon Oct 17, 2022 6:08 pm

Here are the results for a contract for Planting in Chilliwack

Contract: PL24TBP003
Client: BCTS Chilliwack
# of Trees: 100,130
Opened: October 3rd, 2022
Contract Rating System: Yes
Left on the Table: 10.5%

This job is unique. It is up Jervis Inlet. Also, you'll notice that the bid prices are quite high. That's because the contractor has to buy and bring along all of the required cones, stakes, and fertilizer, and then ship/barge/heli everything into place. Plus all of the other usual costs.

01. $586,634 - $5.86/tree - Rainforest
02. $648,329 - $6.48/tree - Brinkman
03. $943,902 - $9.43/tree - Evergreen

Post by **Scooter** » Mon Oct 17, 2022 6:34 pm

Here are the results for a contract for Planting in Arrow South

Contract: PL24TFG001
Client: BCTS Nelson
# of Trees: 705,660
Opened: October 12th, 2022
Contracting Rating System: Yes
Left on the Table: 6.7%

This job went for almost seventy cents last year. Not a good omen for the start of Interior viewing.

01. $420,053 - 59.5 cents/tree - West Arm
02. $448,194 - 63.5 cents/tree - Zanzibar
03. $572,625 - 81.1 cents/tree - Evergreen
04. $578,286 - 81.9 cents/tree - Brinkman
05. $654,931 - 92.8 cents/tree - Nature's Treasures

Post by **Scooter** » Mon Oct 17, 2022 6:53 pm

Here are the results for a contract for Planting in Vanderhoof

Contract: PL24TJE001
Client: BCTS Vanderhoof
# of Trees: 1,516,630
Opened: October 12th, 2022
Contractor Rating System: Yes
Left on the Table: 4.1%

This one gives me more optimism. The low bids in Vanderhoof last year were lower than the low bids on this contract. At least we're starting to move in the right direction.

Also, we can learn something from this bid. Apex has a higher CRS rating than Summit. We can deduce this because their rating was enough to give them a lower position than Summit, despite their bid being $1,359 higher. We don't know what their rating is. Nobody knows anybody else's company rating except for their own. That information isn't released publicly, so unless a company has decided to boast publicly about their rating, the numbers are all confidential. Nobody except BCTS should know which company actually has the best rating or worst rating, or where everyone else ranks in between. Also, the Contractor Rating System (CRS) only applies on some BCTS contracts. A few BCTS offices have opted not to use these ratings on individual contracts (such as the Vancouver Island South contract). And the MOF does not use the BCTS ratings on their contracts.

Again, there is no information about why Brinkman or Rhino were disqualified. It was probably something very simple, such as a missed signature on the bid submission, or forgetting to include one of the mandatories such as a resume or list of assigned personnel. This sort of thing happens frequently.

01. $647,543 - 42.7 cents/tree - Folklore
02. $674,265 - 44.5 cents/tree - Seneca
03. $735,737 - 48.5 cents/tree - Spectrum
04. $755,169 - 49.8 cents/tree - Blue Collar
05. $863,756 - 57.0 cents/tree - Celtic
06. $884,266 - 58.3 cents/tree - Apex
07. $882,907 - 58.2 cents/tree - Summit
08. $888,142 - 58.6 cents/tree - Coast Range

Post by **Scooter** » Tue Oct 18, 2022 7:06 pm

Here are the results for a contract for Planting in Arrow North

Contract: PL24TFG004
Client: BCTS Nelson
# of Trees: 329,085
Opened: October 18th, 2022
Contractor Rating System: Yes
Left on the Table: 11.3%

High prices per tree, looks good. But remember that this bid includes a lot of helicopter work, and that cost is included in the bid price. Also, this bid includes 20 person-days of day-rate (10 units @ 2 persons) which probably added 3-4 cents per tree to the original basic bid price.

01. $257,485 - 78.2 cents/tree - Greekpeaks
02. $286,464 - 87.0 cents/tree - Zanzibar
03. $297,314 - 90.3 cents/tree - Brinkman
04. $311,028 - 94.5 cents/tree - Evergreen

Post by **Scooter** » Fri Oct 21, 2022 4:57 pm

Here are the results for a contract for Planting in Creston/Grand Forks

Contract: PL24FOR001
Client: Forsite
# of Trees: 644,830
Opened: October 21st, 2022
Contractor Rating System: N/A
Left on the Table: 1.5%

That's a narrow gap between #1 and #2. This is a wildfire job, but it involves a lot of access issues and some use of helicopters. This contract is being funded by the MOF, but administered by Forsite.

01. $456,672 - 70.8 cents/tree - Timberline
02. $463,383 - 71.9 cents/tree - Evergreen
03. $505,051 - 78.3 cents/tree - West Arm
04. $592,161 - 91.8 cents/tree - Zanzibar
05. $597,163 - 92.6 cents/tree - Brinkman

MikeBH · Post by **MikeBH** » Fri Oct 21, 2022 5:52 pm

I'm curious where you see the results for the Forsite job and the other LBIP contracts? Maybe I'm blind, but I just looked and couldn't find it.

Post by **Scooter** » Fri Oct 21, 2022 7:49 pm

They get sent to me directly by various anonymous industry stakeholders. I should be able to get results for all eight of their contracts eventually. It's not as visible as the direct BCTS and MOF work, but it's still funded by the province.

Post by **Scooter** » Fri Oct 21, 2022 7:50 pm

Also, this slow loading of the message board is driving me absolutely crazy, trying to figure out the problem. We're still working on it ...

Post by **Scooter** » Sun Oct 23, 2022 8:18 pm

Here's a polite reminder to any bidders who might feel lazy about going to see an outlier block, and decide instead to throw in a blind bid for the block.

What happens if you think it's probably a nice "easy" block like the rest of the contract, but in the spring you discover that it looks like this?

Oh boy.

Will this week be as rocky as this block? Inquiring minds want to know. At least half a dozen bids open this week. Unlike the weather, things are warming up.

Post by **Scooter** » Mon Oct 24, 2022 6:36 pm

I always cry a little inside when they don't mound the block ... but they DO mound the road leading to it.

Cyper · Post by **Cyper** » Tue Oct 25, 2022 9:11 am

MOFL is pretty stingy with releasing results of their tenders. Forsite only releases results to contractors who bid on their contracts. Zanzibar also only releases results of their administered jobs to those who submit RFPs. Some BCTS offices are starting to hold back bid results until they have a signed contract. MOFL has been doing that as a matter of course for a while now. Who knows what they suspect?

Post by **Scooter** » Wed Oct 26, 2022 6:42 pm

MOFL is pretty stingy with releasing results of their tenders.

Everyone seems to be stingy with even releasing the actual bid tenders this year, let alone results. The number of known contracts which aren't online yet is alarming. I can think of six BCTS districts north of Merritt that likely or definitely have contracts which haven't been posted yet.

On a positive note, this very definitely favours planters, because we've seen definite evidence in the past that contracts which open later in the Fall usually tend to have higher prices. And is this a surprise? Not really. Look at the photo below, which I took four days ago. How likely does anyone think it is that someone viewing blocks covered in snow is going to be in a good mood and think that the block "looks great," and decide on a low price?

Post by **Scooter** » Wed Oct 26, 2022 6:52 pm

Here are the results for a contract for Planting in Vanderhoof

Contract: PL24TJE002
Client: BCTS Vanderhoof
# of Trees: 2,086,270
Opened: October 25th, 2022
Contractor Rating System: Yes
Left on the Table: 4.8%

Lots of bidders on this one. Apex jumped a spot ahead of Brinkman due to the Contractor Rating System:

01. $ 851,209 - 40.8 cents/tree - Rhino Reforestation
02. $ 892,105 - 42.8 cents/tree - Spectrum
03. $ 944,008 - 45.2 cents/tree - Folklore
04. $ 981,053 - 47.0 cents/tree - Celtic
05. $1,065,822 - 51.1 cents/tree - Seneca
06. $1,128,343 - 54.1 cents/tree - Apex
07. $1,127,548 - 54.0 cents/tree - Brinkman
08. $1,132,137 - 54.3 cents/tree - Coast Range
09. $1,215,826 - 58.3 cents/tree - Blue Collar

Post by **Scooter** » Thu Oct 27, 2022 9:20 pm

Here are the results for a contract for Planting in Boundary

Contract: PL24TFF001
Client: BCTS Nelson
# of Trees: 1,693,662
Opened: October 27th, 2022
Contractor Rating System: No
Left on the Table: 1.5%

Pretty tight bids.

01. $937,277- 55.3 cents/tree - Evergreen
02. $951,725 - 56.2 cents/tree - Brinkman

Post by **Scooter** » Thu Oct 27, 2022 9:29 pm

Here are the results for a contract for Planting in Burns Lake

Contract: PL24TAS4102
Client: BCTS Burns Lake
# of Trees: 767,320
Opened: October 27th, 2022
Contractor Rating System: No
Left on the Table: 13.4%

01. $309,367 - 40.3 cents - Brinkman
02. $350,802 - 45.7 cents - Windfirm
03. $381,691 - 49.7 cents - Seneca
04. $423,434 - 55.2 cents - Coast Range
05. $462,076 - 60.3 cents - Folklore
06. $548,488 - 71.5 cents - Celtic

Post by **Scooter** » Thu Oct 27, 2022 9:44 pm

Here are the results for a contract for Planting in 100 Mile House

Contract: PL24DMH003
Client: MOF 100 Mile
# of Trees: 1,526,515
Opened: October 27th, 2022
Contractor Rating System: n/a
Left on the Table: 3.5%

Almost this entire contract is fill plants. Only one regular block was a raw block.

Note that there are only 1,236,315 confirmed trees on this contract, but there is a chance that the other 290k will become available, and the bid selection was based upon confirmed blocks plus potential overflow.

01. $ 754,454 - 49.4 cents/tree - Zanzibar
02. $ 781,171 - 51.2 cents/tree - Rhino
03. $ 845,905 - 55.4 cents/tree - Apex
04. $ 877,419 - 57.5 cents/tree - Torrent
05. $ 882,737 - 57.8 cents/tree - Coast Range
06. $ 941,081 - 61.6 cents/tree - Brinkman
07. $ 944,385 - 61.9 cents/tree - NGR
08. $ 998,016 - 65.4 cents/tree - Folklore
09. $1,074,761 - 70.4 cents/tree - Seneca
10. $1,189,294 - 77.9 cents/tree - Celtic

Post by **Scooter** » Thu Oct 27, 2022 9:56 pm

The clock is ticking. It's getting hard to view at the higher elevations. This photo was taken today.

And this was only 1400m ...

MikeBH · Post by **MikeBH** » Thu Oct 27, 2022 10:11 pm

It's weird that so many contracts came out/are coming out so late this year. Seems like the SE corner of the province was on it for the most part. I sure hope contractors bid high for those snowy blocks they can't see. That 'outlier' block above is every planters worst nightmare, at least coupled with the phrase 'well it looked ok on the map.'

Post by **Scooter** » Sat Oct 29, 2022 10:13 am

Here are the results for a contract for Planting in Burns Lake (Nadina)

Contract: # Unknown
Client: Silvicon
# of Trees: 600,000
Opened: October 27th, 2022
Contractor Rating System: No
Left on the Table: 1.7%

I don't remember ever seeing this before ... two companies (Celtic and Folklore) had the exact same bids on the contract. This is almost impossible when each block on a contract is priced individually. But for some contracts, including this one, the bidders are asked to give an overall weighted-average price per tree for all trees on the contract, rounded to a tenth of a cent per tree. So if two companies each happen to pick exactly the same weighted average price, to the tenth of a cent (rare but not impossible), you can end up with the exact same bid. And that's what happened here.

I wonder what would happen if the tie had been for first place.

01. $292,200 - 48.7 cents/tree - Windfirm
02. $297,000 - 49.5 cents/tree - Blue Collar
03. $320,400 - 53.4 cents/tree - Hybrid 17
04. $385,200 - 64.2 cents/tree - Celtic
04. $385,200 - 64.2 cents/tree - Folklore
06. $399,000 - 66.5 cents/tree - Brinkman
07. $420,000 - 70.0 cents/tree - Whanau
08. $457,200 - 76.2 cents/tree - Dynamic

Post by **Scooter** » Sat Oct 29, 2022 10:28 am

Here are the results for a contract for Planting in 100 Mile House

Contract: PL24FOR002
Client: Forsite
# of Trees: 1,171,180
Opened: October 28th, 2022
Contractor Rating System: n/a
Left on the Table: 4.4%

This contract is mostly burned standing mature timber. There is one large heli block of approximately half a million trees. The rest of the blocks (which are generally north and east of Loon Lake around the Chasm FSR, and a couple outliers up by Green Lake) are pretty standard access standing burned mature timber.

01. $ 576,865 - 49.3 cents/tree - Coast Range
02. $ 602,527 - 51.4 cents/tree - Torrent
03. $ 613,136 - 52.4 cents/tree - Apex
04. $ 671,263 - 57.3 cents/tree - Dynamic
05. $ 776,441 - 66.3 cents/tree - Brinkman
06. $ 830,082 - 70.9 cents/tree - Seneca
07. $ 885,790 - 75.6 cents/tree - Folklore
08. $ 901,822 - 77.0 cents/tree - NGR
09. $ 978,533 - 83.6 cents/tree - Leader
10. $1,949,267 - $1.66 per tree - Celtic

Post by **Scooter** » Sat Oct 29, 2022 10:39 am

Here are the results for another contract for Planting in 100 Mile House

Contract: PL24FOR003
Client: Forsite
# of Trees: 1,021,390
Opened: October 28th, 2022
Contractor Rating System: n/a
Left on the Table: 1.0%

This contract is very similar to the previous contract. Lots of burned standing mature blocks with good access (6 blocks total, compared to 9 on the previous contract). But one large block of more than half a million trees which is heli access. Most of the blocks are just north of Loon Lake, although the fly block is south of Loon Lake.

I appreciate seeing Celtic's bid here, even though it still doesn't top Leader's record. We need more Hail Mary's.

01. $ 676,931 - 66.3 cents/tree - Folklore
02. $ 683,748 - 66.9 cents/tree - Zanzibar
03. $ 746,338 - 73.1 cents/tree - Apex
04. $ 815,278 - 79.8 cents/tree - Torrent
05. $ 825,074 - 80.8 cents/tree - NGR
06. $ 829,628 - 81.2 cents/tree - Seneca
07. $ 877,399 - 85.9 cents/tree - Brinkman
08. $1,073,663 - $1.05 per tree - Leader
09. $2,347,727 - $2.30 per tree - Celtic

jdtesluk · Post by **jdtesluk** » Sat Oct 29, 2022 11:21 am

Don't know if that is a true Hail Mary.....more like chucking it clear through the back of the end-zone.

I think it is a statement.

Important to consider that with these standing timber blocks, WSBC is looking at them VERY closely, and I heard from several WSBC staff last year that officers may be on a hair-trigger to shut-down if proper safety precautions aren't followed. Head-protection (preferably climbing helmets) is just one part of it. Consider, this is a somewhat new set of conditions. Sure, we have planted burned blocks for decades, but we are seeing more and more of these standing burnt blocks, where the potential for catastrophe is elevated. I am hoping to arrange a seminar on this at the conference in January to help companies best prepare contractors that take these on.

MikeBH · Post by **MikeBH** » Sun Oct 30, 2022 5:26 pm

Maybe Celtic just wants to see the results. So, throw a high bid in for fun, and get to see what people bid for future reference?

Post by **Scooter** » Sun Oct 30, 2022 9:40 pm

Quite possible Mike. Especially when there's no guarantee of seeing the results if they don't submit a bid. I know that sometimes, certain contractors will even view an entire job and put together an accurate bid, but then put down silly unreasonable prices because they don't actually WANT the job, they just want to know where they would have sat had they submitted their real bid. Or in other cases, put together a bid, but don't actually submit it, for the same reason. This sort of behaviour is more likely at the diligent companies that actually spend a lot of time and money looking at jobs closely before putting together their bid. For a company that throws in a blind bid once in a while (a bid based on guesswork, without having gone out to do a reccie), there's no point even putting together a bid for that sort of pedagogical exercise.

Although Jordan's comments are also quite accurate.

I believe that we have three public bids to be awarded this week. A fairly quiet week. But then a large flurry of results from November 9th to 18th.

Post by **Scooter** » Mon Oct 31, 2022 6:09 pm

Here are the results for a contract for Planting in Clinton

Contract: PL24CCF001
Client: Forsite
# of Trees: 885,479
Opened: October 31st, 2022
Contractor Rating System: n/a
Left on the Table: 5.8%

For this contract, there's a bit of annoying access getting into Units 027 and 037, but probably no heli needed on this contract. It's pretty straightforward overall.

Also, after seeing that their $2.3m bid last Thursday wasn't quite competitive enough, Celtic appears to have sharpened their pencils on this one.

01. $ 418,832 - 47.3 cents/tree - Torrent
02. $ 443,272 - 50.0 cents/tree - Coast Range
03. $ 457,967 - 51.7 cents/tree - Apex
04. $ 461,920 - 52.2 cents/tree - Dynamic
05. $ 519,772 - 58.7 cents/tree - Folklore
06. $ 549,226 - 62.0 cents/tree - A&G
07. $ 587,378 - 66.3 cents/tree - Leader
08. $ 613,040 - 69.2 cents/tree - Seneca
09. $1,514,723 - $1.71 per tree - Celtic

Post by **Scooter** » Mon Oct 31, 2022 6:24 pm

Here's another challenge that we have to deal with sometimes when viewing ... discovering problems on blocks that the foresters may not know about. Quite often, the foresters haven't been able to visit all the blocks themselves before posting a contract. So they're relying on info from other people who visited the block in the past.

Sometimes, their info is outdated. Perhaps a regen survey was done three years ago, and there was essentially no regen on the block that was large enough to qualify to be counted. But in the meantime, there's an explosion of growth. So a planting company is told that the target density is 2000 stems/Ha, and that there should be 1900 plantable spots/Ha.

But then when we go out to take a look at the block, we see a sea of very nice healthy 12" to 24" high pine trees.

How do we bid a block like that? Is the forester going to say to space off the good ones, which means we can only find about 400 plantable spots per hectare and it's a huge time-waster for the planters? Or is the forester going to be stuck with nowhere else to move the trees that were allocated to the block, so we end up planting through it anyway and treating the regen as ghosts?

Post by **Scooter** » Thu Nov 03, 2022 5:21 pm

Here are the results for a contract for Planting at Kootenay Lake

Contract: PL24TFD001
Client: BCTS Nelson
# of Trees: 761,272
Opened: November 3rd, 2022
Contractor Rating System: Yes
Left on the Table: 10.9%

This contract includes 55 person-days of work in the bid (approximately 54,000 trees) which unfortunately dilutes the ostensible bid price by several cents per tree. This contract also includes approximately 202,000 ferts.

01. $453,413 - 60.1 cents/tree - West Arm Silviculture
02. $502,932 - 66.7 cents/tree - Brinkman
03. $593,252 - 78.7 cents/tree - Evergreen
04. $665,191 - 88.2 cents/tree - Zanzibar

Post by **Scooter** » Thu Nov 03, 2022 5:32 pm

Here are the results for a contract for Planting in Vernon South

Contract: PL24TKN001
Client: BCTS Vernon
# of Trees: 1,587,718
Opened: November 2nd, 2022
Contractor Rating System: Yes
Left on the Table: 21.4%

From the Q&A document, it appears that this contract was finalized without any block maps being available to bidders.

01. $ 773,246 - 48.7 cents/tree - Zanzibar
02. $ 938,415 - 59.1 cents/tree - Brinkman
03. $1,031,566 - 65.0 cents/tree - Seneca
04. $1,215,759 - 76.6 cents/tree - Leader

Post by **Scooter** » Fri Nov 04, 2022 12:42 pm

Here are the results for a contract for Planting in Burns Lake

Contract: PL24TAS4101
Client: BCTS Burns Lake
# of Trees: 1,954,780
Opened: November 3rd, 2022
Contractor Rating System: Yes
Left on the Table: None

This one is a crowded field for some very easy work on a fairly large job. It is also a rare bid, insofar that the winning bidder didn't actually have the lowest bid, but was ranked first due to having the most favorable adjustment under the Contractor Rating System. I think this has only happened once or perhaps twice since the CRS was implemented several years ago.

I'm often asked where it's possible to find information each year about what each contractor's rating is. That information is known only to BCTS and is not shared publicly. So nobody has any idea, other than a few people in top management who know what the ranking is for their own company. But occasionally we can get minor comparative clues about individual companies. From this bid, it's possible to deduce that for THIS year, Folklore has a slightly higher rating than Windfirm, although that can change from year to year. Looking at the #2 and #3 spots, we can also deduce a less specific inference, that Windfirm either has a rating that is equal to or greater than Brinkman's, OR that Brinkman's could be higher but if so, that the difference between the two is less than 1.49% (because otherwise Brinkman would have been listed as #2). Over a period of years, it would be possible to figure out each contractor's rating with fairly good accuracy IF the rating stayed constant, by comparing data from hundreds of bids. But since each company's rating changes each year, this is not possible.

This comes on a day when I can't imagine that anyone is going to be doing any more field viewing for the remainder of this viewing season. Snow has hit in force now, with significant amounts last night even down under 400m elevation (there were multiple accidents and multiple highway closures in the past 24 hours in the Kamloops region). And yet there are contracts for 2023 which haven't even been posted online year. Unlucky.

01. $ 799,434 - 40.9 cents/tree - Folklore
02. $ 798,727 - 40.9 cents/tree - Windfirm
03. $ 810,300 - 41.5 cents/tree - Brinkman
04. $ 838,239 - 42.9 cents/tree - Blue Collar
05. $ 889,227 - 45.5 cents/tree - Dynamic
06. $ 904,078 - 46.2 cents/tree - Celtic
07. $1,033,505 - 52.9 cents/tree - Seneca
08. $1,051,345 - 53.8 cents/tree - Rhino

Post by **Scooter** » Fri Nov 04, 2022 12:45 pm

Check back next Friday (Remembrance Day) for the next round of updates. I think there are at least five jobs opening on November 9th and 10th.

Edit: 8 jobs that I know of, opening between the 8th and 10th.

Post by **Scooter** » Sun Nov 06, 2022 11:20 am

Another thing to worry about for 2023 is fuel prices. I probably should have gone into more detail about fuels in my State Of The Industry post.

This morning, the price of diesel jumped above $3/liter in New Brunswick. Typically, the price of diesel there is usually fairly comparable to BC, or just a few cents per liter higher. I believe that the jump may be due to concerns about the US currently having inventories of distillates (diesel fuel and furnace oil) which are down to their lowest levels since 2008, and no expectation of being able to "catch up" going into the winter. Anyone who heats with oil this winter is going to see some very high energy bills. For most of Canada, furnace oil prices this winter may be double what they were last winter ($2.27/litre at the moment country-wide average compared to $1.18/liter back at the start of the year), and New Brunswick looks like it will be 2.5x last year's price. But based on inventories, these numbers will probably climb as we go into the heating season. And of course, while the cost of furnace oil appears to be quite unrelated to tree planting, the price IS related to the cost of diesel fuel, which probably powers 60-70% of the tree planting industry.

Any for anyone who thinks that it may end up fine if the war in Ukraine suddenly stops, remember that almost all of western oil companies have pulled out of Russia. Without companies like Haliburton & Schlumberger, Russia cannot realistically maintain production capacity on a long-term basis. It's like firing your mechanics. The impact may not be felt immediately, but as repairs & maintenance continue to be deferred, the fleet slowly falls apart.

On top of that, once the midterms are over next week, Biden will no longer need to draw down reserves from the SPR, which means that the recently artificially-suppressed pricing will rebound upward.

Post by **Scooter** » Mon Nov 07, 2022 8:10 am

A clarification re the Contractor Rating System. One of our regulars did some research about the number of times that the company awarded a contract was influenced by the CRS. I thought it had happened only a couple times at most, since the system was implemented, but it turns out that it has happened more than I remember. There have been five previous instances over the past five years where a contract was awarded to a contractor that got an edge over another contractor due to a more favorable rating. The system was implemented in 2017, so the first time that it affected results was in the fall of 2017 (for work in 2018). The dates below are the year of planting, not the year of viewing:

2018 - No contract awards were affected by the CRS

2019 - No contract awards were affected by the CRS

2020 – BCTS Port McNeill, PL20THD610 – Brinkman awarded the job instead of Guillory-Emery

2021 – BCTS Quesnel, PL22TLH004 – Apex awarded the job instead of Blue Collar

2022 – BCTS Vernon, PL23TKJ005 – Zanzibar awarded the job instead of Seneca
2022 – BCTS Mackenzie, PL23TGE003 – Celtic awarded the job instead of Blue Collar
2022 – BCTS Port McNeill, PL22THD823 – Evergreen awarded the job instead of Brinkman
2022 - BCTS Arrow South, PL23TCG005 - Zanzibar awarded the job instead of West Arm

Post by **Scooter** » Wed Nov 09, 2022 3:26 pm

Here are the results for a contract for Planting in Cranbrook

Contract: PL24TFH002
Client: BCTS Cranbrook
# of Trees: 553,820
Opened: November 8th, 2022
Contractor Rating System: Yes
Left on the Table: 12.9%

This contract also includes approximately 193k ferts.

01. $269,632 - 48.9 cents/tree - West Arm
02. $304,355 - 55.0 cents/tree - Brinkman
03. $372,458 - 67.3 cents/tree - Zanzibar

Post by **Scooter** » Wed Nov 09, 2022 3:34 pm

Here are the results for a contract for Planting in Invermere

Contract: PL24TFH003
Client: BCTS Invermere
# of Trees: 433,660
Opened: November 9th, 2022
Contractor Rating System: Yes
Left on the Table: 6.3%

This contract also includes approximately 44k ferts.

01. $232,018 - 53.5 cents/tree - Zanzibar
02. $246,643 - 56.9 cents/tree - Evergreen
03. $283,374 - 65.3 cents/tree - Brinkman

Post by **Scooter** » Wed Nov 09, 2022 3:48 pm

Here are the results for a contract for Planting in Quesnel

Contract: PL24TLH004
Client: BCTS Quesnel
# of Trees: 1,819,490
Opened: November 9th, 2022
Contractor Rating System: Yes
Left on the Table: 8.8%

This contract also includes approximately 500k ferts.
These numbers were amended by BCTS shortly after they first came out, as there was an initial miscalculation in one of the dollar amounts.

01. $ 767,391 - 42.2 cents/tree - Rhino
02. $ 834,611 - 45.9 cents/tree - Blue Collar
03. $ 839,076 - 46.1 cents/tree - Brinkman
04. $ 879,026 - 48.3 cents/tree - Folklore
05. $ 855,300 - 47.0 cents/tree - Spectrum
06. $ 911,593 - 50.1 cents/tree - Celtic
07. $ 904,422 - 49.7 cents/tree - Torrent
08. $ 920,323 - 50.6 cents/tree - Dynamic
09. $ 900,923 - 49.5 cents/tree - NGR
10. $ 892,200 - 49.0 cents/tree - Seneca
11. $1,164,066 - 64.0 cents/tree - Apex

Post by **Scooter** » Fri Nov 11, 2022 7:45 am

Here are the results for a contract for Planting in Kamloops

Contract: PL24DTR001
Client: MOF Kamloops
# of Trees: 1,020,888
Opened: November 9th, 2022
Contractor Rating System: n/a
Left on the Table: 4.4%

This is an area that I'm very familiar with, up Scottie Creek. My crews have already planted on some of these blocks. There's a bit of challenging access and heli tree delivery to one block on this contract (one that Apex planted a few years ago). This is the usual burned fire (Elephant Hill) with head protection required.

01. $499,176 - 48.9 cents/tree - Torrent
02. $521,016 - 51.0 cents/tree - Apex
03. $572,842 - 56.1 cents/tree - Folklore
04. $595,252 - 58.3 cents/tree - Leader
05. $690,492 - 67.6 cents/tree - A&G
06. $812,114 - 79.5 cents/tree - Celtic

Post by **Scooter** » Fri Nov 11, 2022 7:54 am

Here are the results for a contract for Planting in Kamloops

Contract: PL24FOR004
Client: Forsite
# of Trees: 895,239
Opened: November 10th, 2022
Contractor Rating System: n/a
Left on the Table: 19.9%

This is one of four contracts for planting in the Spark fire, north of Savona (just east of Scottie Creek). Burned mature timber, head protection required.

This contract has some very challenging tree delivery. Plus a lot of steep slopes and one block that is pretty rocky. Dynamic must have looked at this one very, very carefully to be confident about the tree delivery here. The guys from Apex were examining this contract very diligently while I was viewing it, so I think Dynamic must have figured something out that both Apex and I missed.

01. $465,229 - 52.0 cents/tree - Dynamic
02. $557,987 - 62.3 cents/tree - Coast Range
03. $618,383 - 69.1 cents/tree - A&G
04. $622,404 - 69.5 cents/tree - Torrent
05. $668,802 - 74.7 cents/tree - Apex
06. $705,544 - 78.8 cents/tree - Folklore

Post by **Scooter** » Fri Nov 11, 2022 8:03 am

Here are the results for another contract for Planting in Kamloops

Contract: PL24FOR005
Client: Forsite
# of Trees: 899,489
Opened: November 10th, 2022
Contractor Rating System: n/a
Left on the Table: 10.0%

This is the second of the four contracts north of Savona (the other two open next week). Again, this contract is burned mature requiring head protection, and has some challenging tree delivery.

01. $446,269 - 49.6 cents/tree - Apex
02. $491,143 - 54.6 cents/tree - Coast Range
03. $527,828 - 58.7 cents/tree - A&G
04. $530,180 - 58.9 cents/tree - Dynamic
05. $583,386 - 64.9 cents/tree - Folklore
06. $640,430 - 71.2 cents/tree - Torrent

Post by **Scooter** » Fri Nov 11, 2022 5:12 pm

Here are the results for a contract for Planting in Vanderhoof

Contract: PL24DSN020
Client: MOF Vanderhoof
# of Trees: 675,939
Opened: October 27th, 2022
Contractor Rating System: n/a
Left on the Table: Unknown

This is a strange one ... there was only one bidder. I guess the other people who viewed it didn't like this particular contract. And I don't know the dollar amount yet.

01. Dewan

Post by **Scooter** » Fri Nov 11, 2022 5:19 pm

Here are the results for a contract for Planting in Burns Lake

Contract: PL24TAS4100
Client: BCTS Burns Lake
# of Trees: 1,450,298
Opened: November 10th, 2022
Contractor Rating System: Yes
Left on the Table: 1.6%

More trees out of the Burns Lake office.

01. $569,180 - 39.2 cents/tree - Brinkman
02. $578,209 - 39.9 cents/tree - Windfirm
03. $580,307 - 40.0 cents/tree - Blue Collar
04. $599,652 - 41.3 cents/tree - Spectrum
05. $700,993 - 48.3 cents/tree - Dynamic
06. $711,148 - 49.0 cents/tree - Celtic
07. $723,068 - 49.9 cents/tree - Folklore
08. $731,795 - 50.5 cents/tree - Seneca
09. $799,003 - 55.1 cents/tree - Apex

Post by **Scooter** » Fri Nov 11, 2022 5:28 pm

Here are the results for a contract for Planting in Merritt

Contract: PL24TEM605
Client: BCTS Merritt
# of Trees: 1,022,729
Opened: November 10th, 2022
Contractor Rating System: Yes
Left on the Table: 1.9%

This contract is also an option-to-renew, although that may not be worth much in today's economic climate (unless the Bank of Canada gets inflation under control by next year).

01. $516,997 - 50.6 cents/tree - Coast Range
02. $526,650 - 51.5 cents/tree - Brinkman
03. $566,258 - 55.4 cents/tree - Seneca
04. $612,370 - 59.9 cents/tree - Celtic
05. $643,089 - 62.9 cents/tree - Leader
06. $678,621 - 66.4 cents/tree - Zanzibar

Post by **Scooter** » Fri Nov 11, 2022 5:29 pm

That's all for this week.

I know of at least sixteen contracts opening up next week. Everything is weeks late this year, but the floodgates are opening now. I think we'll start to see some companies backing off now, and bids starting to go higher.

Until next weekend ...

MikeBH · Post by **MikeBH** » Sat Nov 12, 2022 9:04 pm

I think Zanzibar won the Arrow South job last year thanks to the rating system.

Thanks for posting all these ministry jobs that aren't available elsewhere. Hopefully prices start rising. Some of these prices seem pretty stagnant and with inflation hitting everyone pretty hard, the industry would benefit from some price bumps.

Post by **Scooter** » Sun Nov 13, 2022 4:39 am

Thanks Mike. I've added that job to the list. And I also dug through and added all the contract numbers, so we can refer back to them more easily in the future.

Post by **Scooter** » Tue Nov 15, 2022 7:52 pm

Here are the results for a contract for Planting in Kamloops

Contract: PL24FOR006
Client: Forsite
# of Trees: 963,230
Opened: November 14th, 2022
Contractor Rating System: n/a
Left on the Table: 3.5%

This is more work up the Deadman-Vidette Road, north of Savona.

01. $441,556 - 45.8 cents/tree - Apex
02. $456,821 - 47.4 cents/tree - Folklore
03. $476,730 - 49.5 cents/tree - Coast Range
04. $503,644 - 52.3 cents/tree - Dynamic
05. $544,789 - 56.6 cents/tree - A&G
06. $578,955 - 60.1 cents/tree - Torrent
07. $638,675 - 66.3 cents/tree - Leader

Post by **Scooter** » Tue Nov 15, 2022 7:56 pm

Here are the results for a contract for Planting in Kamloops

Contract: PL24FOR007
Client: Forsite
# of Trees: 691,456
Opened: November 14th, 2022
Contractor Rating System: n/a
Left on the Table: 2.1%

The last (and smallest) of the four Sparks wildfire contracts north of Savona.

01. $313,661 - 45.4 cents/tree - Folklore
02. $320,152 - 46.3 cents/tree - Coast Range
03. $328,264 - 47.5 cents/tree - Dynamic
04. $342,200 - 49.5 cents/tree - Evergreen
05. $356,828 - 51.6 cents/tree - Torrent
06. $357,012 - 51.6 cents/tree - Leader